As promised, here is a preview of the first round matchups in the NBA Playoffs. First up, the Eastern Conference (with the West to come tomorrow):
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #8 Chicago Bulls
There is no real reason to break this series down into any great detail, since the outcome isn’t really in doubt. Cleveland for the second straight year finished with the best record in the NBA, and something tells me that this team will work extra hard to win a championship with Lebron James’ pending free agency just around the corner. In addition, this is the same Bulls team that blew a 35 point second half lead at home to the Kings and that lost to the Nets twice (with one of those coming just last week when they had everything to play for). What I am getting at is that there is no realistic chance that the Bulls knock off the Cavs, even though they split their season series 2-2 (one of those wins came in December, the other last week with Lebron on the bench). ESPN’s playoff predictor gives them a 5% chance of moving on, and honestly even that might be generous.
Prediction: Cavs in 4
#2 Orlando Magic vs #7 Charlotte Bobcats
This one isn’t too tough to pick, either. In terms of point differential, Orlando has been the most impressive team in the league this year, and that didn’t just happen by accident. This team is loaded, and they look ready for another run to the Finals. Charlotte on the other hand will be making their first playoff appearance ever, so I think it is fair to say that this is a mismatch (as one would normally expect from a 2-7 playoff series in the East). That isn’t to say that Charlotte isn’t a quality club, as their 103.3 defensive rating* is second only to Milwaukee’s in the entire league. The problem is that their offense ranks in the bottom half of the league, and Orlando can essentially match them on the defensive end (103.6 defensive rating) while also sporting one of the NBA’s most efficient offenses (111.8 offensive rating). Thinking back to last year when Philadelphia put a bit of a scare into the Magic, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Charlotte steal a game, but expecting any more than that would be unreasonable.
Prediction: Magic in 5
* Recall that offensive/defensive rating is defined as points scored/allowed per 100 possessions. This is a more reliable stat than points scored/allowed as it is not affected by a team’s pace of play.
#3 Atlanta Hawks vs #6 Milwaukee Bucks
It’s a shame what happened to Andrew Bogut, because if he were still healthy this would be the East’s best first round series. Milwaukee has hung tough without the big fella, going 4-2 down the stretch, however one of those losses came at home to the Hawks just this past Monday. This probably isn’t a good sign for the Bucks chances in this series, however they still are the league’s top defensive team statistically (103.2 defensive rating) and are still tough to score on without Bogut as Kurt Thomas plays solid interior defense, and this gives them a fighting chance at least. The Bucks are clearly going to try to shut down Joe Johnson, who dropped 30 on them a few days ago, however the Hawks have plenty of other options capable of picking up the slack even if Johnson isn’t producing. 4 other players average in double figures, not even counting Mike Bibby, a more than capable scorer himself. The Bucks have no answer for this depth on offense, as they are 24th in the NBA in offensive rating, and they presumably will struggle even more on that end without someone who can get them easy buckets inside consistently. This all adds up to Atlanta moving on rather easily, although I will definitely wonder what could have been if the Thunder from Down Under were in the mix.
Prediction: Hawks in 5
#4 Boston Celtics vs #5 Miami Heat
The Heat draw the shell of what used to be the Boston Celtics in the first round, and honestly this may be a tougher matchup for them, despite the Celtics’ struggles. The Heat beat Atlanta 3 out of 4 times during the regular season, while they lost all 3 of their games against the Celtics (though the most recent of those games was played in early February). Regardless of that fact, however, the Heat still have a pretty real shot at winning this series. Dwyane Wade has shown countless times that he can lift this team to levels above what one would think is possible for a team this lacking in secondary talent, and honestly this Celtics team is ripe for the picking. Rajon Rondo is amazing, Paul Pierce is still Paul Pierce and Ray Allen has had a decent enough season, however Kevin Garnett is really starting to show signs of serious decline, and this is most evident in the Celtics regressing to the mean defensively this season (they finished 6th in defensive rating after finishing 1st and 2nd the last two seasons). Add in the fact that Boston’s bench is almost as thin as Miami’s (did you see Rasheed Wallace score on his own hoop the other night? My goodness) and this could be a surprisingly competitive series. I think this series could go 7 games, considering how well Miami is playing right now. However I’ll tone down the dramatics a bit and say that the Celts get it done in 6, because their problems aside, Boston is still the better team.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
I’ll also take a stab at predicting the later rounds of the East playoffs, although of course these rounds will be previewed in more detail once the time is right:
East Semifinals
Cleveland over Boston in 6
Orlando over Atlanta in 6
East Finals
Cleveland over Orlando in 7
-The BOMB
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