The Australian Open

Roger Federer proved once again early this morning that he is the greatest tennis player in the world, and continues to build a case for being the greatest tennis player that has ever lived. Fortunately for the spectators Andy Murray was able to settle into a better brand of tennis late in the match a provide a pretty entertaining sequence to conclude the tournament. Both men opened up tight, each dropping serve once early. Federer was able to take the first set before even really settling into the match, as Murray pressed beneath the pressure of defeating Federer for his first Grand Slam title. Federer found his groove in the second set and the less experienced Murray was visibly shaken, until settling in late in the set. Murray was able to hold easily late in the second, but was unable to do anything with an increasingly imposing Federer serve. Murray seemed looser in the third, possibly at the thought that the match was all but over, and he was able to calm down and play great tennis, even going up an early break. Although, he seemed to tighten up again at the prospect of taking a set, dropping serve to even the set, we can thank him for it, as it led to a very entertaining tie-breaker before Federer hoisted the trophy.

I read a preview of the Australian on ESPN, including predictions by a large number of their tennis experts. It must have been 10 or 15 writers giving their favorites, sleepers and early departures for the tournament. Now, before I attack these experts, I must give them the dap they deserve for majority-picking Robin Soderling as an early departure, which was entirely accurate. However, with this group of writers, none of them had the expertise to pick the greatest player in the world to win the tournament. Now, I understand that it can be perceived as lame to take chalk, but it's not like they were picking Fernando Gonzales or Lleyton Hewitt; the picks were mostly covered by Rafa Nadal, Andy Murray and Juan Martin Del Potro. And you don't see experts afraid to pick chalk when it comes to Serena. So, I just hope that they remember this event in the future. Roger Federer crushed the Australian Open. Save a brief struggle against Andreev early and a slow start against Nikolai Davydenko, Fed was dominating. Lleyton Hewitt, Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray were really no match for the champion in 3 of the last four rounds, and neither was Davydenko in the latter stages of that match.

Federer can play so many ways, making it near impossible to overtake him strategically. Pete Sampras was a great player, who won a lot of titles, but he couldn't offer the variety of approaches that Roger can. I have seen Federer win matches with imposing returns, with bruising ground strokes, or just with a big serve when nothing else was working. His ability to strike winners on the backhand is criticized at times, but he proved against Murray today that the winners are there if he needs them. Federer also moves as well as any of the young upstarts that come to his feet to challenge him. He ran all over the court with Murray, and is so capable defensively and so strong on the attack that you are never more than a half an inch away from losing control of a rally. He has the kind of game that is not to be forgotten. And deserves to be among the 2-3 favorites for any tournament he chooses to play in. We should all make sure we appreciate the kind of tennis we are privileged to witness.


APT

BOLT: Tim Tebow

I know that Tim Tebow is a hero and a prophet and the greatest thing to come into football since the football, but is it major ESPN "bottom line" news that he has strep throat. Am I really supposed to care? If my brother gets strep throat, I don't expect Tim Tebow to care. Although, from what the media makes him out to be, I'm sure he would sit at my brother's bedside and read him stories until he fell asleep, and then magically cure him with fairy dust. But seriously, he was a very, very good college football player (certainly no Herschel Walker). He won two championships, but in one of them, he only came in for QB draws. Chris Leak was the starter and no one gives a shit about Chris Leak. Florida was a great team with Tebow, but let's not forget that they've put some other great offensive players in the pros, as we've already seen early success from Percy Harvin Louis Murphy and Andre Caldwell. Urban Meyer is also one of the greatest offensive coaches in the game. AND their defense is always top-notch. Tebow didn't even have that great a year, but had a chance to win the Heisman until late, because everyone wanted him to. I really don't have anything against Tim Tebow himself. I thought it was admirable the way he took things upon his shoulders last season, and I respect his faith, and accept his attribution of athletic success to a deity, even though there are some holes in that theory. I just can't wait until he becomes a back-up NFL player so that everyone will shut the hell up. Though, at the same, I do hope he feels better. 103 fever is rough.


APT

PRO bowl

It's probably a good thing that the NFL came up with the name Pro Bowl for their end of the year exhibition game, because to call this year's version an All-Star game would be darn near fraudulent. Here are a list of players who could consider themselves Pro Bowlers this season:

Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Jake Long, Brian Cushing, Jairus Bird, Nate Kaeding, Brett Favre, Steven Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Sidney Rice, Andre Gurode, Kevin Williams, Lance Briggs, Charles Woodson, Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, Ben Roethlisberger**, Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Antoine Bethea, Drew Brees, Jonathan Stinchcomb, Jahri Evans, Jonathan Goodwin, Jonathan Vilma, Darren Sharper, Roman Harper, Matt Schaub, Vince Young, David Garrard, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Le’Ron McClain, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Chad Ochocinco, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Heath Miller, Ryan Clady, Joe Thomas, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Logan Mankins, Alan Faneca, Chris Dielman, Nick Mangold, Kevin Mawae, Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Adrian Peterson, Deangelo Williams, Frank Gore, Leonard Weaver, DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Steve Smith, Roddy White, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Jason Peters, Bryant McKinnie, David Diehl, Steve Hutchinson, Leonard Davis, Chris Snee, Shaun O’Hara, Ryan Kalil, Mario Williams, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Sean Ellis*, Haloti Ngata, Vince Wilfork, Casey Hampton, Elvis Dumervil, James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, Ray Lewis, DeMeco Ryans, Darelle Revis, Champ Bailey, Nnamdi Asomugha, Ed Reed, Brandon Meriweather, Brian Dawkins, Yeremiah Bell, Shane Lechler, Dan Carpenter, Kassim Osgood, John Condo, Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, Trent Cole, Darnell Dockett, Justin Smith, Jay Ratliff, DeMarcus Ware, Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews, Patrick Willis, London Fletcher, Asante Samuel, Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins, Nick Collins, Antrel Rolle*, Adrian Wilson, Quintin Mikell, Andy Lee, David Akers, Johnny Knox, Heath Farwell, John Dorenbos

*-Sean Ellis and Antrel Rolle both sustained injuries in the playoffs, so I'm interested to see their names still on the rosters. I believe it is the first appearance for both, so perhaps it still means something to them. But I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised to see LaRon Landry or Richard Seymour at the game on Sunday in one of their places.

**- I know that Ben Roethlisberger was asked to be a replacement as a quarterback and declined due to injury. Technically I don't believe he can call himself a Pro-Bowler but they wanted him. I note this more, because I don't know how many other players might have been asked and declined, making this even more outrageous. (Kurt Warner is one possibility)

Thoughts:

1. There are 118 people that I listed that are considered Pro Bowlers (119 with Ben). Only 88 of these are playing in the game.

2. David Garrard is a Pro Bowler. He threw 15 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.

3. Garrard is among three AFC qbs that were not on the original roster. Matt Schaub, Vince Young and Garrard are the 5th, 6th and 7th best QBs in the AFC according to Pro Bowl voters. There are only 16 teams in the AFC, 3 of which are the Raiders, Bills and Browns.

4. Imagine what AFC practice was like in 7 on 7 drills with that array of QBs trying to beat Darelle Revis, Nnamdi Asomugah and Champ Bailey.

5. The Pro Bowl goes back to Hawaii next season. I expect it to stay there.


APT

BOLT The Carrier Dome

APT is currently watching the Georgetown/Syracuse game on ESPN, and is just sitting here in awe of what it must be like to play ball at the Carrier Dome. It is ENORMOUS!! And Syracuse packs that shit out! It is amazing just to watch. I will have to catch a game from there one day.


APT

BOLT recaps of Championship weekend.

Being I gave you such an intense preview of the games this weekend (and not to brag, but pretty accurate previews (actually yes to brag)), we'll do a quick recap of the games.

Indianapolis Colts 30, New York Jets 17

This was a great game, despite the score sitting 13 points apart. The Jets played great in the first half. They got pressure early. They moved the ball through the air on the early downs using a great balance of their running backs and play action, and they took a 17-7 lead into the last two minutes of the first half.

That is when the game turned. Peyton tore down the field, using three passes to Austin Collie to close the gap to three. Rex Ryan made great adjustments at the half of the Charger game to create pressure on Phil Rivers. This time, it was Jim Caldwell and Co. that made adjustments. After 30 minutes of being abused by the Jet blitz, Peyton started to read and the O-line did a great job reacting. The Colts got enough out of the running/short-passing game to be balanced, and Manning made some perfect throws in near perfect coverage.

The Jets could have put together any defensive scheme they wanted, it is impossible to account for the abilities and intelligence of Peyton Manning when he is rolling.

Player of the Game: I used hustle and battling adversity as the reason to give Pierre Garcon POTG last week. This week he added 11 catches for 151 yards and a TD, a game-changing performance. I said that the Jets would need to shut down the two edge receivers to stop the Colts, allowing more men to cover the interior of Collie and Clark. Revis did his job on Wayne, but Garcon wouldn't let that happen on the other side, exploding for a huge game and opening up things for Austin Collie, who gets honorable mention (along with that QB). Also, if no one saw it, special mention to Pierre Garcon for having the most bad-ass mouthpiece (he has vampire teeth drawn on. it looks sweet. unfortunately i couldn't find a picture, but look for it in the super bowl).


New Orleans Saints 31, Minnesota Vikings 28 (OT)

This game can be summed up with one stat. Fumbles: NO: 1 lost (3 total); Minn: 3 lost (6 total!). I mentioned AP's propensity for fumbling in the preview. Even I didn't imagine this onslaught of greasy fingered crap by the Vikings. I figured one big turnover would be the difference. The Vikings made sure that wasn't the case, turning it over 5 times. You can say all you want about the Favre pick at the end of the half. In my opinion, a 55 yard field goal was too long for 36 year old Ryan Longwell. He would have had to match his career long. As for Favre running it, sure it was on option. He might have had a few yards to gain, but if you saw him limping around all 4th quarter after Bobby McCray hit him in the knee, you should understand why he'd shy away from that play. So rather than risking injuring his leg further or getting walloped by trying to run, he tried to make something happen, and failed. He still gave his team a chance to win the game in overtime, despite the fact his team couldn't hold a football and the game shouldn't have been that close in the first place. Favre proved a lot of people wrong this season and had a great year (and I'm no Favre fan). As for the game, outside of the turnovers, I thought Minnesota was the better team on both sides of the ball. They threw the ball better, ran the ball better, played better defense in pretty much all areas. However, turnovers will often tell the story of a football game, and this time the story was:

Saints 1, Vikings 5

Player of the Game: Jabari Greer: This was really not a game of standout players. If he could hold onto the football AP would be a decent choice. Pierre Thomas gets honorable mention. However, I go with Jabari Greer. His personal stat line is fine 8 tackles (7 solo) and 2 passes defensed, but I will give you this stat line instead. Sidney Rice: 4 catches, 43 yards 1 TD. If you were wondering all game where Sidney Rice was (APT certainly was), Jabari Greer knew exactly where he was, so ask him. Every time the Vikings made a play down field, Tracy Porter was standing beside the open receiver. The Vikes picked on him all day, because Greer took care of his business.

Stay tuned for an intense super bowl preview to come...


APT

Championship Preview Part Deux

Although it's a terrible memory to think back to Katrina and the devastation that accompanied her, especially in light of the recent tragedy in Haiti (please give what you can, APT will certainly be doing so), although these memories still haunt many, they will forever be connected to the re-emergence of this football team. Behind the acquisition of Drew Brees and the support of the city of New Orleans, the Saints found there way in the 06-07 NFC Championship before falling to the Chicago Bears. BUT...that was at Soldier's Field. Tomorrow's game is a different story. We all know that the Superdome is going to be loud, as loud as any stadium, perhaps, this side of Qwest Field. So let's get to the breakdown...



Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Looking at this game, it appears as though it is going to come down to one thing: The Play of the Offensive Line. And this will continue to be what it comes down to so long as Ray Edwards and Kevin Williams are healthy enough to contribute. The Viking front four of the Williams Wall, Edwards and Jared Allen pressured Tony Romo last week as recklessly as I've seen a D-Line pressure since the NY Giant Super Bowl run two years ago. I don't know if they could possibly repeat that performance, even if Ray Edwards and Kevin Williams were healthy. Against a possibly overrated, but certainly above average offensive line of Dallas, they pushed them around 4 on 5 like it was nothing. The challenge is being focused, this week, on the Saints OTs.

Jermon Bushrod will take the responsibility of Jared Allen, who put up another 14.5 sack season for the Vikings, while Jonathan Stinchcomb will be assigned a hopefully (for competition's sake) healthy Ray Edwards. I think this is the more important of the two trench match-ups, as although Brett Favre has been very good all season, I don't think the Vikings passing offense can match explosiveness with the Saints outside of Sidney Rice. I just don't see the Viking Secondary being able to stay with all the weapons the Saints have in the passing game. Unless you are going to play dime packages all day (and the Saints running game is strong enough to prohibit that), you are going to see match-ups with safeties and linebackers on the likes of Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush. Drew Brees is probably the single best QB in the NFL at distributing the football without bias. Marques Colston is almost certainly the Saints best receiver, but I believe that the Saints can maintain their offense if Colston were to be shut down. To shut down the Saints Passing Game, you need to do what the Vikings did to Romo last week. Because, if you give Brees any time whatsoever, he has too many weapons for your defensive backs and backers to handle.

As far as the Vikings Offense vs. the Saints Defense, it is a similar story. You can run the football on the Saints Defense and you can throw the football on the Saints Defense, but only biconditionally. R<->T (for our logic fans out there) You can run the ball if and only if you can throw the football. The Saints Defense has shown bouts of greatness all year. But if you analyze this greatness situationally, it is mostly done playing with a lead. The Saints have Jabarri Greer and Tracy Porter back and healthy. Greer and Porter were very impressive in coverage early in the season, and their return allows you to push Malcom Jenkins and Rudy Gay down into the nickel and dime back slots, which (parallel to the mets pitching rotation I talked about earlier) takes them from a spot of which they are capable to a spot where they can excel. That combined with Roman Harper and Darren Sharper, one of the top couple COMBOS of safeties in the NFL this season, this defense is ready to get a lead and fight the pass. Bobby McCray and more notably Will Smith (13 sacks) have had a good year pressuring from the outside. You'll see Anthony Hargrove (5 sacks) come in to rush the passer on the inside in lieu of Sedrick Ellis or Remi Ayodele on passing downs to help boost the rush. The Vikings can't let the Saints get out early, and they must get Adrian Peterson involved in this game. He has struggled (for Peterson) in recent weeks and was shut down by Dallas. The combination of a roaring Superdome and this Defense's success against an offense forced to pass could end up being too much to handle if they are unable to be balanced.

APT's prediction: I think that this is a different game if it's in the Metrodome. I don't see the Saint's fans letting the Saints come out flat in this one. I think they will come out on fire and it will be up to Minnesota to match that intensity. And I don't think the Saints will let down these fans. I think that the Vikings will come out early ready to play. There are fierce leaders on these teams and this will not be a walk over in either direction as the games were last week. I believe there are enough deficiencies on these Defenses to allow the Offenses to take control early, trading touchdowns, but at some point there will be a big play or a turnover that changes momentum. Because of the home field, as well as Peterson and Favre's propensity for turning the ball over, I would have to assume that big turnover will go the Saint's way. We also must remember the impact of big plays on special teams, as we should see Reggie Bush and (if healthy) Percy Harvin, two of the most explosive men in the NFL in the open field, handling returns in this game. So a prediction could easily be thrown by a huge special teams play (or blunder for that matter) Once the Saints get in the drivers seat, I think the defense will play inspired football and be able to hold the Vikings. If this game came down to the kickers late, I like Ryan Longwell over Garret Hartley, but I believe this will be a game of Touchdowns.

After a first half that finishes around 17-14 NO, the Saints will get a big play in the 3rd quarter leading to a touchdown and changing the game. I think they'll carry that lead through the fourth quarter, and even if the Vikings get the chance to bring it back close, they will not have the time or capability to turn the tide.

New Orleans Saints 34, Minnesota Vikings 28


APT

Quick Slant: NYM Offseason

A lot of questions arise in New York as players like Bengie Molina, Joel Pineiro, Doug Davis, etc have found homes that are not in the tri-state area. It's not as though the Mets have done nothing. They've brought in a slew of backup catchers, which is actually an improvement on last year's collection of backup catchers, and they brought Jason Bay in to play left field. It is certainly fair to ask, however, about where they now stand now.

It's a question I answer differently then most for a very clear reason. I have a lot more faith in the trio of Mike Pelfrey, John Maine and Oliver Perez than others do. The Mets come into the season with basically the same rotation as last season, when they were picked to go to the World Series by multiple accredited sports institutions. Now, last season, they were terrible. But really, when you look at it, whether there be factors beyond injuries that contributed to the poor baseball, I believe that you can throw the season away. So we sit here, in a similar spot to where we sat last year. Except that John Maine and Oliver Perez are healthy. Now, I have no medical degree and I have yet to examine Maine and Perez, but from all I can understand, the players are at a much better place than they were last season. Perez hid an injury after the WBC and John Maine was never really Healthy. He is as healthy now as he has been in 2 years, and 2 years ago people were beginning to think he could be a #2 starter in this league, APT included. He was the Mets top starter going into the 2006 playoff season, in which they were not far off from winning a World Series. As far as Oliver Perez goes, he is not a great Major League pitcher right now. I could not agree more with that statement. But as bad as the contract seems, the Mets are only paying him a couple million dollars more than what Randy Wolf got this off-season. And if you ask me if I think Oliver Perez can pitch $2.5M better than Randy Wolf, I will answer "yes" every time. I think that he will come into this season healthy and under entirely less pressure than last season and it will result in a solid season. I think that if Maine stays healthy he will emerge as, at least a very good #3 and that Pelfrey, who will be under far less pressure with Maine and Ollie around, will continue his growth.

So what should the Mets do? I dismiss the Gary Matthews Jr move today as fairly moot. I don't think it does anything positive or negative. I think the Mets should take the chance on spending for Ben Sheets for 1 year. Because if he can pitch the way he is capable of pitching, he is a #1A starter. He would give the Mets double-barrel aces and push Pelfrey, Maine and Perez down to slots in the rotation that take them from satisfactory/good to exemplary.

As far as the line-up goes, I think that Carlos Delgado needs to come back if he is in good health. The Mets have some good hitters in their line-up, but what they lack is that hitter that scares you. They don't have that hitter that makes pitchers nervous just looking at him. Sure, a pitcher (especially a lefty) knows he can strike Carlos Delgado out. But he also knows that one wrong move and he could lose the ball into orbit. Delgado just has that air about him, and can create that fear. And that "fear" can severely improve the rest of the order. So do I think it's worth the deficiency in range (he is actually quite good around the bag) to have that bat in your line-up, ABSOLUTELY. Especially a met line-up that has transitioned from overly left-handed to overly right-handed. Other then Delgado, my personal recommendation would be to find a way to get Felipe Lopez as your second baseman, although I realize that the Luis Castillo situation is tough. So, perhaps you see if Castillo can get you to July and make a move for someone at 2nd, while only having to pay 3 months of salary.


APT

Quick Slant: Wade Phillips

It certainly was an interesting season for a Dallas Cowboys fan. Many went into December living in a win-win scenario. Either, the Boys were going to find some success, or the Dallas fan dream of the end of Wade Phillips' tenure would come to be. Then a strange thing happened. The Cowboys began to play as well as they had since early 2008, and were playing as well as anyone in the league, including a victory over the previously unbeaten Saints. So hopes jumped back up for the fans as Dallas coasted into the playoffs and into a home game with a remarkably easy victory over Philadelphia. There was the emergence of Miles Austin, Felix Jones, Mike Jenkins and Anthony Spencer to go with the previously established stars, and it was tough for the fan to know what to think.

So, looking back at the season and seeing Wade's extension, I feel like I should say something. I am happy that Wade Phillips is returning. He is not a spectacular in game coach, but I don't feel like he has proven to be a foul one for the Cowboys. The question with Wade Phillips seemed to be this lack of edge and competitiveness that was associated with his team. But bringing in guys like Keith Brooking, Gerald Sensabaugh and Igor Olshansky have really added an attitude to the team. The emergence of leaders on a physical defense like Jay Ratliff and, of course, Demarcus Ware has certainly changed the feel. Now the Cowboys certainly forgot something back at home when they got on the plane to Minnesota last week, but I don't think it was Wade's fault. I think it is just something that happens. Phillips actually showed some coaching strengths as the season went on, as he became a very strong challenger. The Cowboys also maintain their ability to pound out clock at the end of games after establishing leads. So I don't see what the big todo is about having him stay.

In fact, there is one major reason I am excited that Wade was retained as head coach. If Wade left, there was no way in hell that we were going to be able to get his Defensive Coordinator to stay without him. The single best move that the head coach has made since taking that position for the Dallas Cowboys, was hiring himself as Defensive Coordinator. Even in the traveshamockery that was the Minnesota game, the Defense still showed you that they could get the job done, as they kept the Cowboys into the game through the 2nd and 3rd quarters. And before that game, they were playing as well as anyone defense had in a while. They were right in contention with the Jets for the best defense in the league at the time, and I think had an edge as they were able to contain both the pass and the run game.

So I'm happy Wade stayed for the same reason that I'm happy he was hired. The guy knows how to build and run a 3-4 defense and he showed it this season. So, if I can have Wade as my DC, I'll take him as Head Coach any day.

APT

Championship Preview Part Uh

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

A lot has been said of this game, and most of it means very little. Whether or not the Colts would have won in week 16, to me, has nothing to do with this week. These are different Jets and different Colts. These are confident Jets coming off four straight wins against playoff caliber teams (say what you will about the colt contest). And these are Colts with something to play for. So let's forget about week 16 and break down week 20.

What needs to happen for New York Jets to win.

1. The Jets never trail by more than 7 points, and more than likely they will have to lead for the entire contest, including leading by more than one score late in the 4th quarter.
2. Darelle Revis eliminates Reggie Wayne.
3. The Jets are able to pressure Peyton Manning with 5 pass rushers.
4. Continued success from the running game.
5. Brad Smith must make an impact
6. The Jets must force 2 more turnovers than they allow.
7. Jet FG magic must make its next victim Matt Stover
8. Lito Sheppard is able to legitimately stay with Pierre Garcon, leaving the rest of the Jet Defense to contend with Austin Collie and Dwight Clark over the middle. The Jets must be able to trust their two outside corners to eliminate colt receivers with only modest help deep or else they will not be able to get to Manning before he finds a receiver.
9. Mark Sanchez cannot have the game in his hands. The Jets must do what they've been doing in getting a lead with only the occasional help from Sanchez. He must be able to do his work on first and second down, maybe get a few looks deep on play-action. He cannot be forced to make plays on third down.
10. They must not let confidence turn to cockiness. Even with a lead, the jets cannot let up. The Jets D let up a little late against San Diego. If you leave yourself open like that against the man that is Peyton Manning, you will not come out alive.

OR

1. Curtis Painter plays 40 plus minutes.


What needs to happen for the Colts to win:

1.Force the Jets to bring more than 5 rushers, leaving the inside receivers open on short slants and hitches.
2. Establish some semblance of running threat. They don't have to run for any benchmark of yardage, but simply show on a few plays that if the Jets completely sell out towards the QB, they can break a gain with a draw or a screen.
3. Force Mark Sanchez to drive the Jets. Bring Bullitt into the box and sell out run until proven otherwise. The Colts can score enough against the Jet D, as good as they are, that they can risk going full fledge against the run until the Jets prove they have a legitimate passing threat.
4. Don't make too many mistakes.


If the Colts don't make an abundance of mistakes, they will win this football game. Don't get me wrong, the Colts are not a complete football team, but neither are the Jets and the Colts are the better incomplete football team. The most complete teams in this playoffs have already been eliminated. In my opinion they were the Packers and the Cowboys. Granted, parts of each of those teams certainly did not play to their fullest in each of the losses. But that is to be expected, as quite often in one game playoffs a hot team is the team to look out for. Here, we have two hot teams. The Colts have won 15 straight games when they have tried to win and the Jets have won 4 in a row, including the dismissal of the previous leading "hot" team.

The Jets need to lead this game from start to finish to win. If the Colts get in front early, that will shake the Jets defense. The Jets Defense needs to establish itself as dominant, so that they can maintain confidence, especially in the secondary. If Revis and Sheppard can mostly account for the outside receivers, that leaves 3-4 jets in the middle (likely jim leonhard, kerry rhodes, david harris and dwight lowry) to take care of the other two receivers. If the Jets can hurry Manning with 5 rushers, they have a good chance of being able to cover. If it takes more than 5, they better get to Peyton in one hell of a hurry.

I repeat: the Jets need to lead this game from start to finish to win. If the Colts get in front early, that will shake the Jets offense. This will make Mark Sanchez a bigger factor in the game than he can be. If Sanchez is a BIG factor, it can only be because he is turning the ball over. And trust me, if Sanchez is forced to win this game, he WILL turn the ball over. He has played very well in his confined role so far this post season, but he has yet to play well outside a role like that. He has yet to play well when he needs to bring the Jets back. Not only, can the Jets not allow Sanchez the chance do be a negative impact, they cannot allow Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to be a positive impact for the Colts. If a team is forced to throw, the Colts Defense increases exponentially. They have two of the best pure pass rushers in the game, their corners are sufficient with Kelvin Hayden back and the rookies getting almost a full season of experience. Their safeties are excellent, led by Antoine Bethea (who is a underground ball hawk) and Melvin Bullitt who has become a sure tackler and is better in coverage than Bob Sanders (No disrespect to Sanders, he can change a defense...also note: no disrespect to Ty Lawson). If the Jets turn the Colts Defense into a pass defense, they will not succeed. They need early production from Thomas Jones, continued explosiveness from Shonn Greene, a curveball or two from Brad Smith, a strong pass rush, a couple turnovers and a prayer.

APT's prediction: The Jets will have some early running success and will keep the game close for a half. However, unless the Jets can score with Defense or Special Teams, they will not score enough points to win this game. The Jet Defense is very good, and will get better in coming years when they acquire a pass-rusher or two, but I don't see them holding Peyton Manning to under 21 points. Manning will feel some pressure, but expect the Colts to do what they do, use short passes, screens and draws in place of a true running game to loosen up a blitzing defense just enough to give Peyton Manning time to drive down the field. Sanchez will have a chance to bring his team back, but end up helplessly under pressure, losing a fumble or throwing a pick in the fourth quarter, leading to the extra points in the margin of victory.

Indianapolis Colts 28, New York Jets 13.

APT

Quick Slant: Looking Up

After one of the worst showings I've seen from a Boston College Basketball team Saturday against Maryland, it was incredibly refreshing to see the effort put out last night at Miami. The team was flat and almost non-existent for a full 40 minutes in the Maryland game and Joe Trapani continued a run of noticeably poor play. Fortunately, last night's game has shown signs of a possible turn. I always trust Al Skinner to be able to motivate and to be able to squeeze out all the talent from his underrecruited players, but this season I have found myself questioning him for the first time. Needless to say, I am exuberant to see the beginnings of these questions being put to rest.

The Eagles came out on fire. They hit shots early and you could see them moving around the court with a fluidity that I hadn't seen since the first half of the South Carolina game. I continue to question Joe Trapani's shot selection, but a few fortunate makes and some great interior passing by Rakim Sanders produced early points. Miami, despite seeming to be outplayed, stayed close early with the 3-ball. When Josh Southern went out with his second foul early in the half, Miami went on an extended run of inside dominance. Johnson and Collins were a little too much for Trapani, Dunn and Ravanel to handle inside, and combined with some serious shooting, Miami was coasting.

That's when I really started to appreciate the effort. Down double digits for the majority of 17 basketball minutes, the team didn't seem to let down much at all. Their interior defense was suspect, but more for matchups than lack of effort. The Eagles were troubled by a 2-3 zone for periods of time when their shooting went cold, but the energy level stayed up and kept the game from getting too far out of hand. This enabled them to take advantage of the opportunity once Miami's hot shooting began to taper off. Then Reggie Jackson took over. Biko Paris had struggled at the point against the 2-3 zone as he lacks ability to slash toward the basket, often ending up trapped on the baseline. I have admittedly gotten on Reggie Jackson's PG skills this season and continue to doubt some of his abilities as a distributor, but Reggie can CREATE SCORING. When Miami brought the zone back, Reggie cut through it to the basket dropping off a couple balls to Joe Trapani (with 3-point-plays resulting from an impressive display of power inside) and getting himself to the hoop or to the line. Some timely shooting from Trapani and Raji accompanied Jackson's efforts, and before you knew it the Eagles were on top and rode out the last 2 minutes to the victory. And having watched the game, the score isn't far from where it should have been. This game was played close through and through, but for bouts of too-hot and too-cold shooting.

For those that have been watching lately, this has to be incredibly encouraging to see from the Eagles. I still worry about Rakim Sanders healing ankle, as he seems to still lack the explosive ability of the past. If Rakim can get back to that level where Reggie Jackson now resides, the Eagles can be a very difficult team to defend, regardless of whether the 3s are dropping.

APT

Horseshoes and Hand Grenades

Almost doesn't count in the NFL and that has never been so apparent as it has been watching kickers this post season. It has simply been an ugly playoff season in the NFL. 4 out of 8 games were nearly unwatchable for the faint of heart, and the Jet/Bengal and Colt/Raven games weren't much better. Thankfully, fortunate scheduling has left a sweet taste in the football fan's mouth each weekend, as we've been treated to two great contests.

Contributing to the ugly playoff rounds has been a display of kicking the likes of which APT has never seen. Playoff kickers are kicking at a miserable 57.7% in this year's playoff games, including going just 2 of 5 from 30-39 yards. 30 to 39 yards is supposed to be a chip shot for these pros!! Here are the numbers on the field goal percentages for playoff kickers over the past decade (couldn't find 30-39 numbers on 2001):

Year: FGs - Pct. - 30-39 yards

2001: 37/46 80.4%
2002: 33/47 70.2% 13/14
2003: 38/49 77.6% 13/18
2004: 28/34 82.4% 11/12
2005: 25/29 86.2% 9/10
2006: 46/50 92.0% 8/9
2007: 25/33 75.8% 9/13
2008: 32/38 84.2% 10/10
2009: 15/26 57.7% 2/5

So just LAST SEASON, kickers were 10 for 10!!! from 30-39 yards. I know we only return 5 of last season's playoff kickers, but they are responsible for 5 of this seasons missed field goals (see Nate Kaeding above). Jay Feeley, Ryan Longwell, Matt Stover and Garret Hartley have 3 games to improve the numbers, but unless they manage 11 straight makes (26/37, 70.3%), it will be the worst of the decade.

This idea first came about during the regular season, when 32 NFL teams used 42 different kickers (Mike Nugent, Billy Cundiff and Sean Suisham twice), with only Adam Vinatieri losing a job due to injury. But looking at the numbers, the season, actually wasn't all that bad (84.5%). However the playoffs have told a different story.

Here's hoping things improve, from a guy who appreciates the kicking game as much as anyone. For those of you who've ever gotten sucked into a game by the leg of Shane Lechler or Mike Scifres, those who wait to use the bathroom because Jeff Feagles gets a chance to pin the opposition inside the 5, those who beg at the end of a half for the Raiders to give Sebastian Janikowski a chance to kick from 70, those who were amazed at Nate Kaeding's 69 CONSECUTIVE 40 and under FGs (broken this weekend), and those who were touched by Matt Bryant's game winning 62 yarder after the death of his young daughter. For all you, APT hopes these NFL kickers shake it off and get it right.

APT

Weekend in Review

A little late, but worth the wait, we should probably go back and look at another weekend that wasn't this NFL playoff season. Touted by many as one of the best weekends in sports, and certainly the best weekend in football, Divisional Playoff weekend left a lot to be desired this time around. And to make it worse, APT ended up 1-3 on the week.

New Orleans Saints 45, Arizona Cardinals 14

This game certainly dropped down a peg after early returns showed promise for Anquan Boldin getting to take part. APT was relying on this for the pick, but it doesn't seem it would have made a difference. The Cardinals kicked off the weekend with an explosion, in the form of a 70 yard run by Tim Hightower on the first play. But if you would have known before hand that the run would account for 70% of Arizona's total rushing for the day, you wouldn't have thought much of the outburst. The Cardinals averaged 2.2 yards per carry the rest of the day, playing mostly from behind despite the early lead.

The question coming into the game was obvious. We had two explosive offenses and two up-and-down turnover-based defenses. The question became, which Defense would step up enough to give its team the edge. For one perspective, the Cardinals and Saints each had a chance to show their defensive abilities against Divisional Round opponents earlier in the season. The Dallas Cowboys moved right through the Saints Defense before putting it in cruise control in the second half. The Vikings were made inept by a rare bout of Cardinal pressure.

This day was different. The Cardinals picked up right where they left off in the second half last week against Green Bay. Their defense showed little to no resistance, allowing the Saints to pile up 35 first half points. The Saints on the other hand, though not reflected statistically, put just enough pressure in Kurt Warner's face to disrupt a rhythm-based passing game.

For all intensive purposes, this game lasted about 10 football minutes. The Saints quickly answered the opening touchdown, marching down field 72 yards in 5:24. On the ensuing Cardinal drive Warner hit Jerheme Irvin in stride across midfield and it looked as if the offense was off to the races again, before Rudy Gay stripped the ball and the ever-present Darren Sharper claimed it for the Saints. This was turned in to a quick touchdown. Once the Cardinals were stopped 3 and out and the Saints easily made it 21-7 it was clear this game was over.

Player of the game: Reggie Bush

Indianapolis Colts 20, Baltimore Ravens 3

Saving APT from an 0-4 week was Peyton Manning and his predictably methodical Colts offense. This game came down to two things. Peyton Manning's intelligence and will being stronger than most any defense he has ever been up against, and a continued lack of discipline by the Baltimore Ravens.

This game featured the #2 team in the NFL in penalty yards per game with the Ravenous Ravens at 65.2 yard per game. The Colts sat on the opposite end of that list, finishing the season with the fewest yards per game at 31.2. Like clockwork, the Ravens accumulated 64 yards in penalties in this game, while the Colts a paltry 25. Within the 64 yards of the ravens was a pass interference call on Corey Ivy, at 17-3 in the 3rd quarter, erasing an interception by Ed Reed, the Raven's last gasp before the Colts completely deflated them. Earlier in the drive Reed had intercepted Manning, but the intended receiver, Pierre Garcon, raced back down field and stripped Reed of the football, the Colts recovering. This drive ultimately ended in the FG that created the final score.

Player of the Game: Pierre Garcon He only put up 34 yards on 5 catches, but the Colts' rookie was playing with a very heavy heart, as he still searches for the whereabouts of some of his Haitian relatives, and put up the hustle play of this year's playoffs by stripping Ed Reed.

Minnesota Vikings 34, Dallas Cowboys 14

This was another game that started like you might have thought, but lost its luster once the home team grabbed momentum. The Cowboys were the hot team coming in, and when you are the hot team coming into a tough stadium like the Metrodome, you have to get out early. The Cowboys did just that, shredding the Vikings defense with the pass, the run, everything was working for the Boys and they cruised to an easy victory....wait...or not. The Cowboys did look to be in charge early, with three drives, which if you watched them, looked very impressive. However, they only amounted to 3 points. They lost the first drive to a strip sack by Ray Edwards. The second drive was stalled by another fumble, which the Cowboys recovered, but set up a perfectly missable 48 yard field goal for Shaun Suisham, who wouldn't dare disappoint by making it. The third drive stalled on another sack by Ray Edwards, leading to a 33 yard field goal for Suisham.

In the meantime, the hot Cowboys defense looked like it meant business. They stopped the Vikings 3 and out, including a Demarcus Ware sack on the first drive. But the second drive was like a flash of light, as Brett Favre launched a perfect 47 yard touchdown strike to Sidney Rice down the left sideline. The best part for the Vikings, no one ever told Gerald Sensabaugh the ball was in the air. Not only did he continue to simply stare at Rice as the perfect pass nestled itself in his breadbasket, Sensabaugh didn't even bother to notice the catch as he simply jogged next to Rice toward the end zone, seemingly not knowing the ball was ever there. When Brett Favre directed a decisive 10 play, 80 yard TD drive countering the Suisham FG, this game was decided.

The Cowboys defense gave up 3 points for the next quarter and a half, but the Vikings pass rush rendered a formerly streaking Cowboys offense inept. Marc Columbo, in his second game back from an ankle fracture was no match for Ray Edwards until he was injured. After Flozell Adams left the game due to injury, Jared Allen got in on the party, schooling 3rd year T Doug Free. Kevin Williams pushed through the middle and there was nothing for Tony Romo to do.

Player of the Game: Ray Edwards (3 sacks, 4 TFL, 6 QBHits)

New York Jets 17, San Diego Chargers 14

In a weekend where no one would have been surprised to see 2 or 3 upsets, it was only the unlikely New York Jets that continued to trudge through the playoffs. And they did it the old fashioned way. This game was a tale of two halves, although the 7-0 halftime score doesn't quite show it. The Chargers owned the first half. The Jets offense mustered only 81 yards, while San Diego moved with only some resistance through the vaunted Jets Defense. The only problem being the 7 points they got out of it. Nate Kaeding came in as the All-Pro Kicker, hitting 69 straight field goals inside 40 yards. So, as expected, Kaeding put the Chargers ahead early with a 36 yard FG in the 1st quarter. But wait...he misses left, and watching it, the ball didn't spend much time between the uprights during its entire flight. The Chargers gave the Jets all they needed...a chance.

The Jets opened the second half, showing life, as they leaned on Thomas Jones for 20 yards, and of all people, Quinton Jammer for a 3rd down pass interference call, and Jay Feely made it 7-3 from 46 yards out. Then the Defense followed suit, holding the Chargers to drives of 3, 4, and 1 play, including 2 enormous interceptions. The first followed a Mark Sanchez interception. After the Chargers drove into Jet territory, having a big play called back on a Malcom Floyd clipping call, Darelle Revis went up and made a great play to knock a ball from the hands of Vincent Jackson. So impressed with the play were the football gods, that they allowed the ball to bounce upon Jackson and Revis' bodies until Revis was able to grab hold of it for a pick. The Jets drove far enough to allow Steve Weatherford to pin the Chargers deep and Jim Leonhard intercepted the first pass Phil Rivers threw, leading to a Jet touchdown.

The game was put out mostly out of reach on a breakout run by Shonn Greene. The Chargers showed late signs of life, though another missed FG from Kaeding (his 3rd though one was a 57 yarder) preceded their late TD. Unlike many, I don't blame Kaeding for the loss, although 3 missed FGs and a 3 point deficit seem to point that direction. But you can never underestimate the impact a 2 score lead has on a Defense. I believe that had Kaeding made it a one score game, you would have seen a different Jet Defense on the Chargers last drive.

Player of the Game: Shonn Greene

APT

BOLT: Offsetting Penalties

There was just a situation in the Saints/Cardinals game where there were 3 personal fouls on the same play. All the penalties were offset and play continued. I had never seen a situation like this before. I looked through the appropriate section of the 2006 NFL Rulebook. There is nothing specifically mentioned on 3 penalties called on the same play between two different teams. Based on this and the way it was enforced in this game, it would seem the same applies to any number of penalties greater than one as applies to a "double foul"

Double Fouls

If during the play, penalties offset, redo the down.

If after the play, penalties offset, proceed to next down

EXCEPTION: If one penalty is a 15 yard personal foul and the opposing penalty is a 5 yard foul, the 15 yard personal foul takes precedence over the 5 yard foul, so the 15 yard personal foul will be enforce.

APT

BOLT version of NFL picks

Out of time today, but after going 4-0 in the wild card round (conveniently before this blog came out), I will toss you NFL picks for the weekend. (my superbowl teams from pre-season in bold)

Cardinals 38, Saints 31

Saints can't expect to just turn it on when they feel like it.

Colts 28, Ravens 14

Colts have no problem with the Ravens slowing down the game. They will score as much as they have to, like they always do. Antoine Bethea is underrated. (ask Miami and Jacksonville) Don't forget that Manning used to win the incredibly entertaining chess game with the best Ravens' defenses (yeah, remember when they could cover?)

Cowboys 24, Vikings 18

Most of this season, I thought the Vikings were the best team in the NFC, but antoine winfield is too old or hurt to cover #1 receivers anymore and the Cowboys have the best defense in the league at the right time.

Chargers 29, Jets 13

For every play that Darelle Revis doesn't let Vincent Jackson breathe, Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd will leave Lito Sheppard and Kerry Rhodes gasping for breath.

later,

APT

Welcome to "Lightning in a Bottle",

where we'll try to capture what is blowing up in the sports world before it runs out of juice. Formerly known hypothetically as the Keith-Blog, be ready for pinpoint sports opinion and information, predictions, projections, a sprinkling of mediocre grammar (a lot of commas), thoughts, ideas, parenthetical notes, the occasional unfurling of rage, and more. You never know what you might miss if you don't stay tuned (double negatives). Admissions here: My favorite squadrons are the New York Mets and Dallas Cowboys, as well as Boston College Sports, and, to a lesser extent the Colorado Avalanche, (can you guess where I'm from? I can't.). You will find no more in the main posts here than is necessary about these organizations or their contests, and biases will be cast asunder.


What to look for here:

MIB (Message in a Bottle): Spots on anything that is hot in the moment, informatively, and honestly, though opinionated. This will include predictions, like those to come on this week's NFL games.

Bolts: Quick thoughts on something that is really hot but I don't have time to write a full MIB on.

Quick Slants: This is for those of you who dig my teams and many who don't. These articles admittely will not fear a bias or over-inclusion of the teams of my preference (or perhaps those for which I hold distaste). Also, could include retailiations to writers I read elsewhere.

Ravenous Rants: These have the potential to be incredibly bias and off and over the top (but not necessarily. They will usually be contributions from ma boy Tom.

Weekly Throwdown: This will be either a written argument with another sportshead that I know or perhaps I will put retaliations to writers here. Also, potentially could be a video of me cooking against Bobby Flay, but I don't know if he'll agree to that.

More if I can think of it.



What not to look for here.

sports stars involved in celebritalia
steroids
pending jail sentences
the babylonian empire
a message board where you can cuss out other posters
negative opinions on facial hair
vegetables

brett favre retiring
things that are stupid
etc.

we talk about sports, actual sports, dudes and dudettes performing actual athletic activity.


Hopefully you dig it.

~APT~