2010 Baseball Fantasy Outlook

I'm not going to go through a list of 1000 players, projecting their fantasy value. That's not what fantasy is about. I don't need to tell you to pick Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez 1-2. I don't need to tell you to stay away from Jason Kendall if you want homeruns, or that Rich Harden and Erik Bedard might be injury risks. Everybody knows that, and if they don't know that, it can be easily discovered with a quick stat check. The key to fantasy is knowing those few things that other people might not know. Those few players that are poised to break out that the everyday fan might not be aware of, and those former studs that just don't have anything left, that fantasy databases still have to rank up high.

Here we have the official Bolt in a Bottle Fantasy Sleepers and Fantasy Boners.

Sleepers

C: Matt Wieters. Wieters came up part of the way into the season for the Orioles. He is a huge prospect in the system and it's looking like his first full season is the year to take advantage. If you can get a catcher that can really produce, it is a major fantasy benefit, as there are only so many available. If he can keep that average in the .280s where it was last season, the power is going to start to arrive this year.

1B: Troy Glaus. Glaus is available with 3rd base eligibility as well. I believe that he is truly healthy. He was healthy enough in his brief stay at the end of the last season to be a surprise inclusion on the Cardinal Post Season roster. He is sitting in a line-up that he doesn't have to carry, but he is still in a prime RBI position, likely to batt clean-up or 5th among Larry Jones and Brian McCann.

1B: Joey Votto. Joey Votto is a great, great hitter. He was troubled last season by injury and that is the only reason he isn't at the top of the 1B list in fantasy. Before going out he was absolutely tearing up NL pitching and he was able to show signs of that player towards the end of the season. The Reds line-up around him is becoming more potent by the second and Votto will be sitting there in an RBI slot ready to clean up.

2B: Dan Uggla. I know what your saying. Dan Uggla should not be a fantasy sleeper, and I agree he shouldn't. But he comes in lost among the fantasy rankings (17th on ESPN among second baseman. Uggla has certainly soured, because he just can't play defense at second base. But he will continue to put up 25 HR, 25 doubles and drive in runs in that spritely Marlin order.

3B: Casey McGeehee. McGeehee did a real nice job in about half a season with the Brewers last year. He comes into 2010 with a starting job at 3rd base and as an afterthought in a line-up with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder back to back. That is exactly where you want him to be. He will sit in the 5 or 6 spot in that order, soaking up the disrespect and sending off the fastballs. You won't have to trade up in the draft to get him either.

SS: Jose Reyes. There is no way in hell Jose Reyes could ever be a fantasy sleeper, UNLESS he were to out with some kind of freak illness that would render him unable to begin the season in the everyday line-up, but not effect his actual ability to play baseball. Well, that's where we're at. Reyes is going to be tough to pick too early, because it's unpredictable when he will return to the Met line-up. However, Reyes came into this spring training ready to show people that he can still be the Jose Reyes of old. This thyroid problem has only got him burning even hotter to get out there and play. In his first healthy season at Citi Field, Reyes has a chance to put up an insane number of triples. Seriously, I wouldn't be surprised if he approached 30 of them. He will be smoking around the basepaths, as his legs are no longer a problem. If you can get by on a flyer for JJ Hardy or someone like that until Reyes comes back, it'll be worth it.

OF: Julio Borbon: It is going to become tradition that one Rangers outfielder make this list each season. Last year it was Nelson Cruz who found a spot on each of my fantasy teams and made them look good. This year Cruz is an overrated pick and Julio Borbon is who you want to go after. Borbon, in only about 150 at-bats batted .301 for the Rangers and was able to snag 19 bases. He'll find a lot of green lights on the base paths this season. He'll likely lead off, shifting Kinsler and Mike Young to 2 and 3. So look for a lot of steals, some extra bases, and a ton of runs. Maybe he'll even find a little power with extended time.

OF: Carlos Quentin. Quentin is the MVP of the American League. It is indisputable fact...as long as it carries the proper modifier "when he's healthy". Quentin has always mashed the baseball, but he just can't seem to stay on the field. He is the difference in the AL Central this season, and he could be the difference on your fantasy squad. If Quentin can maintain his health in 2010 the number are going to flow. ESPN's player rater has him right now at #90 among OFs (just below Borbon and just above FERNANDO TATIS). Do me a favor, don't pick Fernando Tatis, but make sure you give Quentin a look.

OF: Manny Ramirez. Another one that is going to leave you asking "Sleeper?!?!?!". But yes, Manuel Ramirez has shot down the list of Fantasy OFs. For what reason? Look at the players around him. Ethier, Kemp, Furcal, Loney. He is smack in the middle of a line-up that gets better every season. And need I remind you what Manny did the last time a contract was on the line. And need I remind you what Manny did the last time he was traded mid-season, which he very well may be this year. Manny is still going to "be Manny", and as much as that includes ridiculous sound and video clips, it also includes production.

SP: Josh Beckett. Beckett had some trouble last year. He had some injuries and he had some consistency problems. But he is still a great Major League Pitcher. He is still the ACE in what is one of the top 2 rotations in baseball. Also, Beckett is pitching in a contract year. I think he'll go back to domination. His inconsistent 2009 dropped him far enough in the rankings that you should be ready to jump all over it.

SP: Ervin Santana: I could probably just use the following argument: "Ranked 230 among pitchers on ESPN". Santana has had some injury problems, but he has also shown the ability to be dominant. Why would you not take a flier on a guy who can be dominant. Santana is the Ace of that Angel's staff if he is pitching well. He still has the stuff that scares hitters and right now you could probably get him in the last round of your draft.

SP: Chad Billingley. Chad had a down year last year. That is obvious. But with stuff like he has, it's hard to think that he won't figure it out again. Billingsley was the obvious #1 in 2008 as the Dodgers threatened a World Series appearance. If he can be any kind of consistent, he is once again going to be a force to be reckoned with. He has a curve ball that is to die for, many hitters would likely rather die than have to attempt to swing at it.

RP: Billy Wagner. Wagner has been a consistent closer in this league for a long time. He is coming off a forgotten year, spending most of it on the DL and the rest as a middle inning guy, just trying to get his comfort back. This year he starts as the closer on a team that is ripe to win 85+ games. The Braves are an up and coming team. They are built on a great pitching staff that is going to keep them in every game. There offense is developing but is not quite at the point where they will commonly be mashing teams. This situation sets up perfectly for a guy that knows how to finish. Expect Wagner to clean up in saves.

RP: Leo Nunez. Nunez took the closer job from Matt Lindstrom last season and is holding onto it. The Marlins are another team that isn't going to commonly blow you out. They've got some good young arms that can hold a team down, and an offense that will score enough. The Marlins will find themselves around the .500 mark with plenty of close wins that Nunez can pick up the save in.


Boners:

C: Russell Martin. Martin was a phenom early. His athleticism behind the plate is still impressive. He showed his versatility, putting time at 3rd base last year when it was needed. He can still be that athlete, but baseball seems to be wearing on him. It is evident at the plate. After a .250 season last year, don't expect it to get any better. And a guy that doesn't provide much pop anymore either, he really isn't worth the pick you'd have to spend.

1B: Aubrey Huff. Huff has likely hit the downward slope at the end of his MLB tenure. He got passed around a bit last season, not being too productive, only landing roles on less explosive offenses. This season in San Francisco will be a tough one as he is already flirting with losing his job early on.

2B: Brian Roberts. This pick became easier once it was clear he won't be starting the season in the line-up. But even prior to that, the idea that Roberts is about done was gaining steam. He won't be able to provide you the speed he has in the past, which will kill his stolen bases and take some points off his average, even cost him a few doubles. If his bat slows down a little, all of the sudden you have a bench player.

3B: Aramis Ramirez. I just cant see Ramirez coming back and producing at a level commensurate with where he's ranked. I always thought it was going to Derrek Lee that slowed down in the middle of this line-up, but Lee has been resilient and is still far from a fantasy boner. Ramirez, however, is prime for a major slide, even in a healthy season, as are the Cubs as a whole.

SS: Derek Jeter. I actually feel terrible to describe Derek Jeter as a boner in any aspect. He's seems to be as good a guy as there is in the game, and I respect everything about the way he plays, even as a Met fan. But Jeter has an incredible season last year. Incredible enough to have him the 2nd SS that you are advised to pick in the draft. As much as I love the way Jeter still plays, I ask you not to pick him over Troy Tulowitzki, not to waste that early round pick on a player, who would take your realistic baseball team to the top, but likely won't give you enough benefit in fantasy to justify where you'll have to pick him. You have to be careful to distinguish fantasy players and baseball players. Derek Jeter may be the greatest baseball player the MLB has seen in some time, but I can't see him replicating last season's statistics and I can't see him carrying your fantasy squad.

OF: Johnny Damon. Do not pick Johnny Damon. You are simply going to have to pick him way too high. Damon is coming off a year where every ball he pulled in the air left the ballpark. Damon was nothing near the masher he was at home when he left New Yankee Stadium. Now he enters the vast Comerica Park where his fly balls will land where they belong, in the glove of the Right Fielder. I wouldn't be surprised if Damon ends up a bench player for the Tigers. Without the power he provided in 2009, his inability to find adequacy in the field is going to make him a liability. I don't think he can put up the numbers to justify a DH spot. Don't get me wrong, Damon is not a BAD hitter, but you don't want him on your fantasy squad this season.

OF: Jacoby Ellsbury. Note, this has everything to do with how high he's ranked. Ellsbury will be productive. He will steal a ton of bases, and he will pack some triples if he can find the corner in right center at Fenway. However, he isn't one of the top 3-5 OF you should be putting on your team. Pitchers are going to start to bust him in and he is going to have to prove he can yank them with some heat. If he can't do that, he could have a down year for the Sox. If he struggles a bit early, look at a possible trade for him while his value is down, because he DOES have productivity in him, I just cant recommend Jacoby for draft day.

OF: Raul Ibanez. Ibanez's numbers still look solid from 2009, and they were, but so much of the production was packed in the first couple months. Think back to the beginning of June, no one was talking about a Pujols triple crown. Why? Because Raul Ibanez was owning the NL. Then two things happened. He spent 23 days on the DL and people started to remember him. Ibanez didn't have near the productivity when he rejoined the Phils. He show some spurts in the post season, but with another year around his trunk, and the severe downturn in production last year, Ibanez looks like a pass in this draft.

SP: Randy Wolf. Wolf is ranked way too high (1 above Beckett where I'm looking). He is a solid starter, a consistent starter, has the ability to eat innings. But he's not going to bring your fantasy team any glory. He won't get too many strikeouts, he won't finish any games, and he usually will put up a fair share of losses. There are far better options to take up this high in the draft. You're best off leaving Wolf on the FA list until you face some injury trouble.

SP: Jason Marquis. Marquis is going to run into some trouble this season. For one thing, he'll be pitching for the Nationals, which will instantly decrease his winning percentage. Also, he has jumped to the front of a pitching staff, where he'll commonly be taking on pitchers who are in a whole other league. He did pitch very well for the Rockies last season, and in general, is a nice, cheap addition to a real team. But you should stay away from him in Fantasy.

SP: Joel Pineiro. Pineiro is going to feel two things this season. One of them is not having Dave Duncan around. The other is the memory of American League line-ups. Look out for drafting Pineiro high. He isn't likely to produce at that kind of level. Pineiro solid, but there's a reason he didn't get the money he wanted.

RP: Brain Fuentes. Fuentes certainly ran into some trouble last season, but he had one thing going for him, in that the Angels had no one to replace him. This season however, they bring in Fernando Rodney to pitch the 8th inning. I believe Rodney will be seen more often in the 9th by the end of the year. The Angels will definitely produce safe situations, but Fuentes will not be the one able to take advantage.

RP: Andrew Bailey. I like Andrew Bailey and he certainly showed he can play last season. I don't want to say anything that would make you think that he's not going to be a real Major Leaguer. What I'll give you though, is that his ranking shot way up after last season, and that it takes about a year to figure a player out. I would look out for that possibility. Batters figure pitchers out, and closers seem to be the most vulnerable to it. There is a reason that there are very few consistently dominant closers. These guys go up and down, so expect the same from Bailey. He also sits on a team that is not going to win a whole lot of baseball games.

Good luck on your drafts!

-APT