The general consensus among those that have followed the NBA this season is that the Eastern Conference, much like the past few seasons, is very top heavy. This observation is certainly not without merit; a not-so-trivial 6 1/2 games separates 4th-place Atlanta from 5th-place Milwaukee. By comparison, teams two through eight in the Western Conference are separated by a whopping four games. That should make the East playoffs (or at least the first round) that much easier to predict, right? Sure, however don’t count out a potential first round upset (remember Boston’s tussle with Chicago in the first round last year?). In my mind there is only one team that has a realistic chance to send one of the East’s top four home earlier than planned, the Milwaukee Bucks.
A lot of NBA media types have been getting behind Scott Skiles and Co. in recent weeks, and not without good reason, being they are 16-5 since the All-Star break. This stretch has coincided with the arrival of John Salmons from Chicago in a deal completed right before the trading deadline. Salmons has been good for 19.8 points per game since taking up residence in the Bradley Center, and he has had a similar impact on the Bucks’ offense as he did last season when he was traded to the Bulls at the deadline.
What hasn’t been talked about much (outside of Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus, from what I have seen) is what Salmons brings defensively to the team. The Bucks were already a very good defensive squad before the trade (not surprising, see Skiles, Scott), but with Salmons in the lineup their D has been positively elite, posting the best defensive rating in the league (points per 100 possessions) over that span by a mile. This does come as a bit of a surprise at first as Salmons doesn’t have a great defensive reputation, however judging by some stats from basketballvalue.com, it is apparent that Salmons’ true value actually lies in his defensive contributions. Over the past year, Salmons’ teams have given up 5.76 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the court as opposed to when he is riding the pine. That is an impressive number for someone who is almost never mentioned in the same breath as other strong defenders in the league (to give some context, Kobe Bryant’s defensive plus/minus over the same period is -4.67, more than a point less than Salmons’).
It is for this exact reason that the Bucks are dangerous come April. They are an average offensive team, but if they continue to suffocate their opponents on D, that won’t matter. Boston or Atlanta (their most likely first round opponents) could be in trouble in the first round, and Boston in particular may be having nightmares thinking back to what happened last spring (with good reason).
-The BOMB
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