Well the bracket is out. Expect to get bracket predictions from APT, The BOMB and THE-A-TRAIN on Tuesday. Perhaps it will help you with your office pool. Here are some first impressions.
Bubble Snubs:
The only bubble snub that bothered me was Mississippi State. I understand that they had bad losses with Rider and Western Kentucky, but they performed admirably in the SEC, and their run in the SEC tournament was very impressive. They were within 0.1 seconds of the automatic bid, and I just feel like that should count for something. That was their second OT loss to Kentucky this season. I know that wins mean everything, but when you are trying to decide the best team, how you lose means something to me. Minnesota got smacked in the second half against OSU after beating up on a couple crippled Big 10 teams that are going nowhere in the NCAAs (Purdue and Mich St.). Their run was enough to get them min. MSU however took down Florida and Vanderbilt on their way to a hell of a game with Kentucky. I would have liked to see them in, but I understand.
Virginia Tech's best out of conference win was Seton Hall and they did not perform well against the top of the weak ACC, despite racking up a high number of wins.
Illinois didn't deserve it, either did Seton Hall, Rhode Island (not an island), Ole Miss or any of the others.
Seeding Snubs: There were definitely some seeding snubs out there led by...
Cornell: I know that the 12 seeds have solid success, but the Big Red got boned with this seed. They had some decent out of conference wins (Alabama, Bucknell, Davidson, Vermont). They lost 4 times. Once in the Ivy to Penn (a perennial Ivy contender), and then to Seton Hall, Syracuse and Kansas (2 #1 seeds). APT had the Big Red at a #9.
Northern Iowa: I thought Northern Iowa got snubbed with a 9. They put some quality wins together (Old Dominion, Siena, BC, rolling through the MVC) and I would have given them a 7.
Gonzaga: This is nothing new for the Zags who are always underseeded. Granted, they usually have more success this way. The couple times they've earned high seeds they've had upset trouble. The Zags however, always play one of the tougher out of conference schedules (this season wins against Wisconsin, Cincy, Oklahoma, Illinois; losses to Mich St, Duke, Wake Forest), and still put up large win totals. They lost in their conference tournament, but in the Finals and to a solid St. Mary's team.
Siena: They definitely came in low at a 13 seed, however the committee did them a favor to make up for it in giving them a sorry 4 seed, Purdue. Purdue doesn't seem to have it without Robbie Hummel, so we'll excuse the bracket for this.
Winthrop: I thought the Eagles got balled being put in the play-in game. I'd have them at a 15 seed, maybe drop Morgan State to a #16 and Lehigh take down Arkansas Pine Bluff. The Eagles will take down APB though and get their chance against Duke.
OVER-seeded:
Minnesota: I thought they shouldn't have been in, but if they were, it should have been at a 12. Not a drastic misstep, but still wrong. If the Big 10 proves its worth in the tourney, I'll take it back.
Florida: This is a squad that many thought would be pushed out, but they end up with a #10. They had good wins against Florida State and Mich State, but also lost to Southern Alabama and got beat up by Mississippi State in the Tournament. I have no problem with them being in, but maybe they could have given this spot to Cornell.
New Mexico: The Lobos had a solid season, undoubtedly, but a 3 is very high here. They put up some quality wins against the Big 12 (TTech, TA&M), but I wouldn't have minded seeing Temple here at the 3.
Notre Dame: The Irish win the most grossly over-seeded team in this tournament. This is a team that some weren't sure were in the field until they beat Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament. They went on to take down Pitt as well. The Irish really didn't do anything out of conference though. They got all their points for playing in the Big East. I, again, am okay with them in the tournament. They should be there, but this # six belongs to Northern Iowa. ND would have been happy with the 9. They get no reward by drawing Old Dominion.
Toughest Bracket:
The toughest bracket for me unfortunately goes to the #1 overall seed, playing in the Midwest. Kansas has a 2, 3, 4 of Ohio State, Georgetown and Maryland. If you want to put Mich State as the five there, I suppose you can do that. I would be more worried about Tennessee slipping in this bracket too as a 6 and Oklahoma State at 7. You also have a possible Northern Iowa match-up in the second round as a 9. It's a real tough draw.
Runner up is the West, but pretty much only due to the fact that the Orange have to play the winner of the 8v9, Gonzaga taking on Florida State. Those are some troubling teams if your Syracuse. Also, if anyone noticed, the Committee had themselves a laugh by giving Cuse the 16 seed Vermont. The Catamounts upset the Orange as a #13 over a #4 back in 2005.
Easiest Bracket:
The easiest bracket is Duke's Southern bracket. I neglected to mention in my seeding snubs that Syracuse should have been the #3 overall. Instead, the committee gave Duke that honor, despite Duke not able to win the ACC outright, despite the weakness of the conference. Cuse rocked the Big East, the best conference in Basketball and happened to slip up against a great Georgetown team. Worse things have happened. They got screwed. Duke, however, gets a great draw. Villanova as a two has seem to run out of ideas. They've been having trouble for weeks now, losing 5 of 7. The 3 is a good Baylor team, but not one I believe will be a major threat. The 4 is a Purdue team previously referred to as crippled. Texas A&M is a decent squadron at 5, and ND is over-ranked at 6. The toughest part of this bracket for Duke might be the possible second round match-up with Louisville.
Bomb Outs:
We will have bomb outs be defined as a 1 or 2 seed that misses the sweet 16 or a 3 or 4 seed to lose in round one. Possible BOs:
Villanova: As mentioned, the cats have been struggling. They should be able to handle Robert Morris, but look out for the "Spiders on the Field". Richmond is going to give the Cats all they can take, and it is very likely Kevin Anderson and Co might end up in the Sweet 16, sending Nova home.
Syracuse: As much as I love the Big East, two of their teams are in trouble. I already mentioned that 2nd round match-up against the Gonzaga/Florida State winner. Either of those teams could give Cuse trouble. APT wants to see Andy Rautins be a big-time ball handler for the Orange.
I have a couple others but I'll save it for a separate segment.
Sleepers:
We will define sleepers as teams seeded 5-9 who can make a run or 10+ that could be a surprise Sweet 16.
Richmond: Already mentioned the Spiders. Kevin Anderson is big-time and the Spiders are as well. I like them over St. Mary's and I think they can take down Villanova. The next match-up will likely be a Baylor team that can do some damage inside, but look for the Spiders to make some noise.
Siena: But this doesn't surprise anyone that they can be a Sweet 16. They are not a #13.
Cornell: Same goes here. They should be able to play right with Temple (but the Owls are solid) and then Wisconsin is another winnable game as well.
UTEP: They draw Butler in round 1, who can be upset, and then will likely get a Vanderbilt team in round 2.
Marquette: This is a real sleeper. They played great down the stretch and play almost exclusively close games. That gives them a chance to win any game. Acker plays a consistent point guard, they have plenty of shooting and Lazar Hayward is the real deal.
Temple: Although I mentioned their 1st match-up as a possible upset, don't dismiss the Owls. They can do some work.
Pairing to Watch:
I am very intrigued by the 4v13 pairings in this years tournament. I see multiple possible upsets. They will definitely provide some interesting moments in the first couple days of the tournament. Very Exciting!
4. Maryland vs. 13. Houston
4. Vanderbilt vs. 13. Murray State
4. Purdue vs. 13. Siena
4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Wofford
If we see there 13 seeds advance to the field of 32, don't say I didn't warn you.
Best First Round Match-ups:
Here are my top 3 games to make sure you are watching online if they are not broadcast regionally for you.
3. 5. Butler vs. 12. UTEP
2. 8. Gonzaga vs. 9. Florida State
1. 7. BYU vs. 10. Florida
Finally, here is a quick Final Four prediction for you. I don't know if this will hold when my bracket comes out on Tuesday, but here's a taste.
Midwest: Kansas
West: Gonzaga
East: West Virginia
South: Duke
Check back soon.
-APT
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