No there is not any reality to the title of this post. As you know, Steven Strasburg makes his long-awaited Major League debut tonight. I will try my best to see the game, although I may have too many things to record. The Nationals were wise to begin his career against the Pirates. I imagine he will have a satisfactory debut against that line up. Often times, with this kind of hype, teams will start their prospect on the road, but the Nationals simply couldn't turn down the opportunity to sell out their stadium. They will get Strasburg starts at Nationals Park as often as possible for economic benefit.
Anyway, the title of this email comes from something I heard on WFAN (The New York Sports Radio station I listen to at work). Steve Phillips does a segment with WFAN's nationally renowned radio host Mike Francessa each week. Apparently, in his most recent segment, Phillips made it known that he would trade Steven Strasburg straight up for Roy Oswalt. Now, Phillips' GM abilities are widely in questions, as his tenure with the NY Mets is far more well-known for his trading Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano than for his drafting discovery and development of Jose Reyes and David Wright. However, Phillips was probably an average GM all-in-all and his opinion certainly merits consideration.
So let's consider it. If the Astros were to trade Roy Oswalt they would probably ask for the teams top pitching prospect, as well as another top prospect, and perhaps one or two other decent or young prospects to complete a deal. As phenomenal as everyone has already pencilled in Strasburg's career to be, we don't actually know how he is going to turn out. If any other team was asked to give there top pitching prospect for Roy Oswalt in a 1-for-1 trade, I would imagine they'd be perfectly happy to get the proven Oswalt (assuming they had the ability to try and sign him). Lost in all this hype is the fact that, as of right now, Steven Strasburg is just a prospect. Tonight he will become a Major League player and perhaps a great one. He definitely has the stuff to pitch at this level but it is certainly impossible to know if he is a hall of fame pitcher. It is impossible to know if he will ever turn out to be an ace, the way that Oswalt has been for years in Houston. In baseball, you rarely ever trade major league talent for major league talent, save a rare case of swapping bad contracts or players that have worn out their welcome. Almost all baseball trades of any consequence consist of trading multiple prospects for a proven commodity. If the Nationals had a chance to trade a single prospect (of which they are paying heavily before they even know what he can do) for a proven MLB stud. If Oswalt is not what you want, make the same argument for Doc Halladay or Johan Santana or whomever you consider to be an ace. Perhaps I wouldn't make the trade for Oswalt, but would think differently if it were a younger pitcher, like a Jon Lester or Ubaldo Jimenez. However, the reason that the Nationals CAN'T make this trade has nothing to do with talent.
The Nationals can't AFFORD to make this trade. As great as Jon Lester and Ubaldo Jimenez are, Steven Strasburg is going to sell out Nationals Park every start he makes for the next year. The Nationals can't afford to give up that kid of revenue for any type of talent. They would need trade potential revenue for potential revenue, and I don't believe there is another pitcher in baseball that can match Strazz in that statistic right now. They could get equal value back if they traded for a huge position player, as the everyday revenue might be create a positive VORP for the acquisition. That being said, I don't think Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez or Joe Mauer are available for a price as measley as a minor league pitcher.
I don't personally know what Steven Straburg will become. All that I am saying is neither does anyone else. No 1st overall drafted pitcher has ever one a Cy Young. I know that we scout Strazz as a pitcher that will have that kind of success, but even if we were to know that, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Doc Gooden all fell short of expecations for reasons that had nothing to do with raw talent. I wouldn't trade Strazz if I were the Nationals, but it shouldn't be forgotten that talent-wise he is just another propsect, whose baseball worth still needs to be proven. Economically, however, he is a beast all his own.
-APT
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