NBA FINALS PREVIEW

Well here we are. The NBA Finals start tonight, and we find ourselves preparing to watch two familiar foes square off: the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers. Those of you that have read my previews throughout the playoffs know that by no means did I expect the Celtics to be in this position. After being left for dead at the end of the regular season, the Men in Green have stepped up their play and in the process knocked off the top two seeds in the East, Cleveland and Orlando. The Lakers on the other hand withstood a minor challenge from the Phoenix Suns in the West finals and find themselves in their third finals in as many years.

It is natural to look at this series and immediately look back to the 2008 Finals for insight into how this series may play out. While a lot of the players from that series are still around, the difference between the 2008 and 2010 versions of these teams is actually pretty noticeable (from a personnel standpoint). The Lakers of course were missing Andrew Bynum, and even though he is still hobbled by the slight meniscus tear in his knee, his presence on the court is still more valuable than that of what Ronny Turiaf produced in limited minutes in 2008. And of course the 2008 Lakers did not have Ron Artest, who seems to be finally contributing more on the offensive end (in addition to his more consistent defensive contributions). Ron-Ron averaged 14.3 points on 46% shooting during the Phoenix series, and these numbers would be even better if not for his atrocious first 47 minutes, 59 seconds of Game 5. Needless to say the Lakers would be happy to see Artest contribute in this way against the Celtics.

When looking back to the 2008 Celtics, the most glaring missing pieces are James Posey and Leon Powe (I’ll stop hating on Kevin Garnett for now, although I’m sure KG would love to be able to turn back the clock). Posey was their defensive stopper off the bench, and while Boston hasn’t really replaced him in the two years since he left, Tony Allen does a good enough job filling this role in the present. Leon Powe, on the other hand, was the most productive player on a solid bench that featured Posey, PJ Brown, Sam Cassell and Eddie House. While the current bench is fine, it doesn’t stand up to this group, although Doc Rivers may have found a true spark plug when he decided to give Nate Robinson some PT in the deciding game against the Magic (13 points in 13 minutes). Luckily for the Celtics, though, the Lakers bench is hardly elite themselves (the Suns bench demonstrated this).

Obviously neither of these teams lean too heavily on their role players, and this series should come down to a few key matchups involving the stars of each team. Pau Gasol continued his solid play in the playoffs against Phoenix (19.7 PPG on 57% shooting, 7.2 boards, 1.8 blocks) and presumably the Celtics will throw Kendrick Perkins at him. Perkins did a solid job guarding Dwight Howard, however Gasol is quicker than Howard and is a much more polished scorer, so Perk may have his hands full. On the other end, there have been whispers of Kobe Bryant matching up with Rajon Rondo. I really like this idea, as it allows the Lakers to “hide” Derek Fisher by putting him on Ray Allen. Allen isn’t much of a threat to penetrate, so as long as Fisher is able to fight through screens, that matchup shouldn’t be too much of a mismatch.

I have picked against the Celtics the past two rounds, and have obviously been wrong each time. I definitely didn’t give them the credit they deserved before, and a part of me thinks that they will cap their improbable run with another championship. It needs to be said, however, that there is a chance that this team is running out of gas. Can they maintain the defensive intensity that they have displayed in making Cleveland and Orlando look futile? This is probably the most critical question of the series, and if the answer is yes, then they have a very real shot at winning. Once again, though, I’m going to say no, because lost in this analysis thus far is the fact that Kobe Bryant is playing his best basketball of the season right now. The Black Mamba is back, and with his supporting cast playing the way they are, they should be too much for the Celtics.

Prediction: Lakers in 6

-The BOMB