The NBA Lottery

There has been a lot of debate over the NBA Lottery system coming into tonight. I suppose the complete disgrace that was the New Jersey Net's season is causing a lot of it. The Nets lost 70 games, and needed a late surge to avoid record levels of ineptitude. The lottery system was created to stop teams from tanking at the end of a season to get a better draft pick. The Nets were obviously not involved in any of that. And so, we thusly look at the legitimacy of the draft lottery:

Is tanking a concern?

It definitely is in the NBA. The whole system was introduced in 1985 due to the Houston Rockets and rumors of heavily tanking. The Rockets went on to win the coin flip and get the first pick in the draft. The problem became so pronounced that season that we saw the first version of the draft lottery the very next year. Tanking still rears its head in today's NBA. Many thought the Kings were guilty last season, though they disguised it in the form of "dumping salary".

Why is combating tanking an issue in the NBA and not elsewhere?

There are multiple reasons why tanking is an issue in the NBA and not elsewhere. The #1 reason is because, in the NBA, one player can make an instant impact. The Cleveland Cavaliers were completely transformed with the addition of Lebron James. The same can be said of the Magic and Dwight Howard. In the NBA Draft, more than any other draft, you are completely changing your future with one pick. Basketball puts 5 players on the floor at a time and really only 10 or so players over the course of a game. The ability to affect such a large percentage of that is unrivaled anywhere else. Even if you draft a QB in the first round of the NFL draft, it's not going to result in the same instant success. Troy Aikman was 1-15 in his first season. Peyton Manning was 3-13 in his. A bad football is not ready to change based on the merits of one player. The NBA draft also has a strong hit rate in getting the best man at #1, and the drop-off from 1 to 2 or 1 & 2 to 3 is often larger. The drop off in the NFL has more to do with value in position, the MLB draft seems a crap-shoot most times, the NHL draft often involves waiting for a player in college and seasoning him in the minor leagues. Only in the NBA does this instant gratification so frequently take place, and only in the NBA is it so concentrated at the top.

Is the lottery the answer?

I don't know if the lottery is the answer. It certainly doesn't seem it when you look at it from the outside. Although the NBA involves some of the brightest mathematicians from MIT and other prestigious institutions, looking at numbers from my desk here, it just doesn't seem right. In the 26 years of the NBA lottery, the last place team has only been awarded the 1st pick in the draft FOUR TIMES!!! And if you look at percentages, the last place team has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick in the draft, but a 35% chance of picking #4. This just doesn't seem right to me.

It seems like we'd fall into a vicious cycle trying to decide on a system for the NBA draft. I expect that tanking was a major issue, when the draft was decided by reverse order of finish, rendering a new system a good idea. However, I imagine that tanking is a very minor issue in the lottery era, rendering the new system unfair. Removing it again would make tanking an issue again. And as much as common consensus can gather in a tanking case, it is damn near impossible to prove its existence.

What's the answer?

My answer would probably a revision of the lottery system. I think the fact that 14 teams have a chance at the #1 pick is taking it too far. A team that narrowly misses a playoff birth doesn't need an opportunity to score the #1 pick. The idea of the draft is to improve teams that need improvement. Here is the idea I just thought of:

I say the NBA heads back to MIT or wherever and challenges their geniuses with this: Develop a formula that would create a cut line based upon record. Optimally this formula would secure the following trends. If the records of the teams in the NBA are widespread from top to bottom, the cut line moves down in win %, allowing these teams, who are obviously in heavy need, to have a better chance to score top players. If the records of the teams in the NBA are more tightly packed, the cut line will move up, allowing more teams the chance to score top players, as it is less necessary for the bottom team to get the top notch player. The formula can be kept secret to NBA owners and coaches, and even if it leaked, it cannot be calculated until the season is completed, there teams won't know what number of wins or place in the standings to shoot for. If a team falls out of contention and starts to tank, they will be moving the cut line down right along with them so that they do not gain the same benefit that they would in a straight system.

Now, mind you, I don't have the formula on hand now to test it, and this is an idea I created 10 minutes ago, but at the least, it definitely goes to show that there is thinking to be done on this topic. I will update you all as I draw this idea out further.

Let me know what ideas you have below.

We can fix this shit.

I sure hope the Nets get lucky.

-APT