Barry Zito

We've been doling out the DAP these days on Lightning in a Bottle, because, well, we're damn nice guys. It's so hard to come up with things to write about during baseball season that aren't just going to be erased by the time I actually write them. Luckily, pitchers don't have that problem. I have another five days or so before I have to worry about Barry Zito getting bombed. Something has gone on with Barry Zito. It was referred to on PTI today as a "Hot Tub Time Machine Situation" by Mike Wilbon, and being I'm a sucker for a chance to drop "Hot Tub Time Machine" references, despite not seeing the movie, I'm going to have to agree with him.

The reasons aren't quite clear. Some say it has to do with Zito not having to anchor the rotation in San Francisco, but it's been that way for a few years now. Others say it has to do with his release point, which could be true, but if it was that simple, you would think one of the many great film watchers would have picked that up years ago. Due to my east coast location and obsession with the Mets, I have not seen much of Barry Zito pitching this season, but I had been observing his gradual return since last season. Zito didn't have a great 2009, but he certainly showed flashes, including a sub-2 ERA in 6 August starts, before having a rougher September. He has been able to continue that success, and then some, this season with a 1.49 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP, going 5-0 in 6 starts.

It is wonderful to see Zito back in the form of old, as he was one of my favorite pitchers back with the Oakland A's. But where the heck did this come from? As I've said, I have not seen a ton of him pitching so far this season, but there is one thing that I know can make Barry Zito effective, and it seems to be a key aspect of his turnaround. Zito had in the past, and still does have one of the top couple curve balls in the Major Leagues. He offers probably the most vast 12-6 breaks you'll see, with great control over it, so when it is diving sharply, it is a dominant pitch. A major problem the last few years with Zito's curveball has been that hitters can sit there and wait for it. People like to say that a pitch can be so good that you can know it's coming and still not be able to hit it. That may be true if the pitch is in a perfect location, but outside of, perhaps, the Mariano Rivera Cutter (which is a pitch that has a different effect depending on where in the strike zone it is thrown), that is not actually the case. Zito's problem has been ability to locate the fastball. Zito has never had a dominant fastball. But he didn't need one because the fear of his curve ball kept hitters so off balance that if Zito pumped it up to 90 mph, they had absolutely no chance to catch up to it.

It's a strange situation for the Zito fastball. It needs the curve ball in order to be effective. However, the curve ball needs the fastball to be effective. That seems like a vicious cycle, but it isn't necessarily. The whole thing is based on fastball location. Like I said, Zito cannot overpower hitters with the fastball. So to establish his game early on, he needs to hit his spots precisely with the fastball. Much like a Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine, it's not a matter of speed, but of location. If Zito can hit his spot down and away from hitters consistently, it opens up the inside of the plate. Barry has gradually developed a decent cutter, which he can use to come inside on the right-handers after establishing his down and away. If Zito can control two locations with his fastball alone, that puts the pitch securely in the head of the hitters. Once the 1st pitch is in affecting their already minimal thought time over the 60.6" venture from mound to plate, they don't have the mental capacity left to look for the curve ball. It is too good to hit if you're not thinking about it. This leaves hitters guessing at the plate. Once hitters are guessing at the plate, looking for curve balls in hopes of touching them, an 88 mph fastball becomes as effective as a 98 mph fastball.

If Zito can prove that he can hit spots with the fastball, everything seems to fall into place. I hope that it continues to do so, as it is nice to see Zito succeed.

-APT