I'm taking some time out this evening to do some bias sports reporting.
I let The BOMB take care of the Mets during out 30 team preview, so I could go all out with my own preview for anyone who cares to see it.
I've said this many times this off-season: There are a lot of question marks for the New York Metropolitans. Does this mean they will struggle? Not necessarily. But they definitely can. Many are seeing them as a 4th place team in the NL East. Let's explore.
The Line-Up:
The line-up can be tough to gauge, as we expect to see at least three different incarnations of the line-up early this season. I'll approach it as two, however, as I expect Jose Reyes to be back very soon. The line-up will likely look like this, at first:
SS Jose Reyes
2B Luis Castillo
3B David Wright
1B Mike Jacobs
LF Jason Bay
CF Angel Pagan/Gary Matthews Jr.
RF Jeff Francouer
C Rod Barajas
P Johan Santana et al
I base the 6 and 7 batters on the opening day line-up, which has Matthews 6 and Frank 7. The CFs are productive enough to drive in runs, and they both switch-hit, which does something for the line-up in between two right-handed outfielders.
I actually like how this line-up works, even though it lacks Carlos Beltran. I'll tell you what I like. I don't think that Mike Jacobs is a significantly better player than Daniel Murphy. Murphy I think will prove to be a far superior fielder after getting some time to work around the bag. Jacobs is certainly a more dangerous hitter, but Murphy should consistently hit for a higher average. However, I think that the way the line-up shakes out, the Mets are better off with Jacobs. I think that he will win this job while Murphy is on the DL and become the starter. Here's what he does for the line-up:
- putting Jacobs in the clean-up spot is going to allow him to thrive. This is a guy who did hit 32 homeruns for the Marlins two years ago. I know he struggled with the Royals, but most people would. Now you put him in between proven producers, David Wright and Jason Bay. This is a much better spot for him than it is for Dan Murphy. Jacobs is a fastball hitter (preferably down). He is tough to beat with out a very good fastball accurately placed up in the strike zone. Murphy can be beat with a simply above average fastball, especially inside. In this spot in the line-up, fastballs are going to be bountiful. Also, as much as Jacobs is prone to strikeout, he is actually a pretty patient hitter. This is going to allow him to find those fastballs that will be there for him. I think, in this situation, he will be a lot closer to Jacobs the Marlin than Jacobs the Royal. He definitely seemed to step it up at the end of the spring, as well.
- Jacobs is a middle or late in the order hitter. Daniel Murphy is not. He is probably best suited to bat 2nd when he is at his best. He is a Nick Johnson type hitter. When he is hitting well, he will take pitches, pick his spots and show the ability to drive it the other way. The problem is, the Mets have been stuck with one of the best 2-hitters in the league, Luis Castillo. Castillo sees tons of pitches, hits very well directionally, and has one of the highest OBPs in baseball (save a bad season in 2008. That is exactly what a 2 hitter, especially one behind a lead-off man like Reyes, should be. If you put Castillo 8th, he is wasted. He may be able to get rid of the pitcher in whatever inning he comes up, but that's about it. He's not going to clean up what's left on base. Rod Barajas fits better there, as he has longball potential to clean up what his teammates leave behind, and he also will need to be bunted along to get him around the bases. The mets have 2 #2 hitters and Castillo is the better of the two.
- I think Jeff Francouer is still a very good player. He definitely had some problems in Atlanta, after starting strong. However, it seems people have dismissed what he was able to do in his 1/2 season with the Mets. If Frank can play that kind of ball, he can be a huge threat batting 6th or 7th.
The line-up with Beltran will likely look like this:
SS Jose Reyes
2B Luis Castillo
3B David Wright
CF Carlos Beltran
LF Jason Bay
1B Mike Jacobs
RF Jeff Francouer
C Rod Barajas
P Johan Santana et al
It's easy to see what I like about this line-up: Beltran is in it. I would expect to see this line-up sometime around the middle of May. To be safe, let's say May 21 for the home series against the New York Yankees. I don't like Jacobs spot in this order as much, BUT Beltran is better than even the best Jacobs in the 4 spot. Also, if Jacobs really does thrive in the 4 spot, he can carry that confidence throughout the rest of the season. Then, perhaps, he will fill this 6 hole nicely. Also, if Francouer is producing, Jacobs is again in a nice spot.
- When Reyes returns to the line-up he should be healthy. The thyroid condition had nothing to do with his hamstring from last season. People seem to forget this. Once the thyroid issue is clear, it is gone, and it is just about getting into shape. Therefore, I think the same of Reyes that I did coming into the spring: That he is going to come out fully intent on being the Jose Reyes of old.
- I've already discussed Castillo
- David Wright should bounce back. He is not going to be a 30 HR guy in Citi Field. His power is to the gaps, and he will continue to lose homeruns in large ball parks. It is best, if David just accepts that and continues to play his game. He should not be coming up with a new Citi Field swing. He should go back to his Shea Stadium (no hitters park) swing and let things happen. He will collect doubles and some triples and be the run producer he can be, even though his HR total will be down.
- Carlos Beltran is a question mark, because you can't be sure how healthy he will be. Before Beltran went out last season, he had become a great hitter in Citi Field. He was by far the quickest met in adapting to the new home. He was driving the ball to the gaps, jumping on inside pitches when he could, and ended up batting at a well higher average than he usually would. Beltran's mindset should be healthy, and that is why I think he will produce as long as his body lets him.
- Jason Bay will do what he does. He's not going to hit for a tremendous average, but he will pop some balls over the wall and drive in runs. Despite his average, he does get on base often, and he does hit in the clutch. Bay will be who we thought he was. Hopefully that's all the Mets expect of him.
- I've talked too much already about Jacobs.
- As I've said, I believe the Frank is a better player than you hear. He really seemed to be putting things together. I guess we will have to see what he is able to do if games actually matter.
- Rod Barajas is hear to catch. His boost of power will be nice, as it is great to see his ENORMOUS swing connect. Other than that, he is an 8 hitter.
- The back-up center fielders will be adequate in their duties. I like what we are dealing with there. Hopefully one will fetch something come trade deadline, after he is no longer useful.
How can I see this shaking out, if things are at their reasonable best:
SS Jose Reyes: .273 16HR 71RBI, 28TR, 56SB
2B Luis Castillo: .287 3HR 41RBI 40SacB 21SB
3B David Wright: .291 24HR 101RBI 32DB 19SB
CF Carlos Beltran: .313 26HR 92RBI 26DB 16SB
LF Jason Bay: .263 30HR 103RBI 11OFA 12SB
1B Mike Jacobs: .257 26HR 79RBI
RF Jeff Francouer: .268 21HR 83RBI 13OFA
C Rod Barajas: .240 17HR 61RBI
CF Angel Pagan/Gary Matthews: .270 11HR 37RBI 20SB
Now if this all comes to pass, we are likely looking at a division winner, if not certainly a contender. What gets lost in a lot of discussion is the fact that, despite playing a ton of minor leaguers, the Mets led the National League in batting average. However, they were well last in HRs and very low in runs scored. What was missing was that power. If the Met line-up can find the power that was missing last season, they could be a force.
Trying to avoid my natural bias, here is a more modest prediction:
SS Jose Reyes: .271 13HR 63RBI 24TR 50SB
2B Luis Castillo: .280 2HR 39RBI 19SB
3B David Wright: .293 21HR 101RBI 16SB
CF Carlos Beltran: .307 18HR 84RBI 14SB
LF Jason Bay: .269 28HR 93RBI
1B Mike Jacobs: .240 18HR 51RBI
RF Jeff Francouer: .257 18HR 70RBI
C Rod Barajas: .248 13HR 58RBI
CF Angel Pagan/Gary Matthews: .271 9HR 24RBI
With these numbers, the Mets will still be a competitive ball club, which is what I expect them to be. Perhaps the numbers will fall in between those two predictions. That would please me. However, the Met line-up, especially with Beltran and Reyes, is not the main argument against the Met season. That issue lies in...
The Rotation:
The Rotation is full of questions. It looks like this:
LHP Johan Santana
RHP Mike Pelfrey
RHP John Maine
LHP Oliver Perez
LHP John Niese
I listed the pitchers as I think they should be listed when deciding who is a #1 starter and so on. The Mets will open the year Santana, Maine, Niese, Pelfrey, Perez.
- Santana is going to win the Cy Young according to my predictions. He had a cleaning out surgery. Last time he did so, he won the Cy Young the year after. It seems that this will be something that will come up with Santana. Occasionally his elbow will need some cleaning. Let's not forget that early in 2009, he was completely dominating. Judging from his ability to deliver the baseball in the spring, it looks as though he can be that pitcher again. In that case, the NL better watch out. Prediction: 19-6 2.31 ERA
- Pelfrey put forth a really pleasing final Spring outing. Perhaps it has affected my thoughts for him. Pelfrey has stuff. He has a heavy 2-seam fastball that he, at times, has been able to ride through entire games. Now he is starting to develop some secondary pitches. Big Pelf says he is very happy with where his new split-fingered change-up is. His slider and curveball have both shown promise at times. I didn't notice them as special during the spring, so we'll have to see. Ignore many of the HRs from the spring, as Pelf was working with his 4-seamer, which you won't see much of when the real things starts. Prediction: 16-9 3.78 ERA
- I think John Maine is a legitimate Major League pitcher. He has never led me to believe that he can't get hitters out. He has two problems: 1. Staying healthy & 2. Pitch count. John Maine's problem when pitching has been that he throws an effective 5 innings, but throws too many pitches to make it any deeper. He also shows issues with tiring late in starts, so you can't push him through these effective outings. If he can cut his pitches down, he can be a very, very good starter for the Mets. He either needs to be able to put hitters away or find a pitch that he trusts to be put in play modestly. I think he can put hitters away with his fastball if he is healthy and throwing his change-up well. Prediction: 12-6 3.59 ERA
- Oliver Perez is who he is. I find a hard time believing he can magically turn things around. The Mets have the same manager and same pitching coach. People make a big deal about Santana teaching him, but Santana has been here for 2 years already and Ollie is still static. I don't give high support in how the Mets handle Ollie. They want him to throw strikes, and think that his stuff will take care of itself. Ollie can't do that effectively. When he gets too worried about throwing strikes, he puts up gopher balls and lofty ER totals. He needs to be effectively wild. That means he needs to be able to find location on his 2 and 4 seamers when he needs them, but let the change-up and the slurve go crazy. If you don't have to worry about Ollies pitches going everywhere, it actually makes him less effective. Either the Mets don't realize that, realize they can't actually teach it or think that Ollie can't actually harness it. Prediction: 7-14 5.77 ERA
- John Niese has good stuff. His fastball has been good this spring, he is working in a cutter that will make him more effective against righties, and he has one of those curveballs that I love. However, he is still young. I expect him to have a good year for his experience and if things bend right, he is a sleeper candidate for Rookie of the Year. But more than likely, he will experience some growing pains, before things turn up in August and September. Prediction: 10-10 5.05 ERA
The pitchers who turn out to be the top 3 will make this rotation legit. It's possible you'll see Hisanori Takahashi get a shot if things go how I fear for Ollie.
Defense:
The Mets need a good Defense, as they play in a large park and they have some hitters that are going to let balls find the field. I think the outfield will be solid. Bay is a perfectly adequate outfielder, Beltran is great and Francouer is very good with a +++++++ arm. The infield will bring some questions. Wright's throwing has gotten better, but I still believe he should actually be a first baseman. However, he and Reyes, if they are playing, take good care of the left side with their leather. The right side can be a problem. Luis Castillo turns a great double-play, and he is solid when he's at the ball. However, his range continues to deteriorate. That combined with the fact that I don't think you'll see Dan Murphy at 1st means there could be a pretty big hole on the right side. Murphy has shown great range at 1st, though can be touch around the base. Jacobs is ordinary at best. Look for late game defensive substitutions of Murphy or Tatis, perhaps even a trade for a defensive minded 1st baseman at the deadline. The catching defense should be greatly improved with Barajas and Blanco. Blanco is great at caching runners and Barajas is above average. They both handle themselves well behind the plate.
Lastly, the Bullpen:
Many are looking at the bullpen as a weakness, as it took till the very end of spring training to come-up with the final alignment. I think this is where my opinion differs from many experts. I think the bullpen could easily be a strength for the Mets. There are two reason why the decisions could take a while to finish. One is because you don't have anyone MLB ready. The other is that you have TOO MANY MLB READY. I think the Mets had a lot of arms that could do the job and simply had to pick. The Pen ultimately looks like this on opening day.
Hisanori Takahashi (Long Relief)
Jenry Mejia (Middle Relief for now)
Fernando Nieve (Middle Relief)
Sean Green (Righty Specialist)
Pedro Feliciano (Lefty Specialist)
Ryota Igarashi (Set-up)
Francisco K. Rodriguez (Closer)
I would have preferred the following:
Hisanori Takahashi (Long Relief)
Kiko Calero (Middle Relief)
Ryota Igarashi (Middle Relief)
Raul Valdez (Lefty Specialist)
Pedro Feliciano (Lefty Set-up)
Fernando Nieve (Righty Set-up)
Francisco K. Rodriguez (Closer)
Oddly enough, even though I thought the Mets had a bunch of arms to choose from, I didn't think Sean Green was one of them. They decided to bring him aboard. Look for green to find himself in Buffalo as soon as Kiko Calero gets enough work in. The Mets recently signed Manny Acosta as well, who could find his way to the Citi pen. I really thought the Mets should use Valdez as a second lefty in the pen. Takahashi is left-handed, but is much better suited to throw long relief. Feliciano is a great lefty specialist, but in the NL East, you really should have 2 of them, and having that second one would give Feliciano a chance to capture the 8th inning job if he proved he could take care of right-handed batters.
Ultimately I think the Mets have enough talented arms to get through the 2010 season in the pen. It seems they are committed to using Mejia in the pen. Although, I don't love the idea, I have seen him throw, and I am fairly certain he can be effective in that role. I don't know how it will affect the rest of his career, but for 2010, he can be an asset. I think if K-Rod is given consistent opportunities, he will stay effective all season. I'll take this time out to wish K-Rods two brothers who were in a bad car accident in Venezuela the speediest of recoveries. Feliciano will continue to be great at what he does. I think he is best off staying as the lefty. I think Nieve has some bat-missing pitches and will translate well to the pen, although it may take him some time to adjust to a specialized role. Adjusting to being a long man from a starter is a lot easier than to being a short man. As you can tell from my thought that he could be a starter for the mets, Takahashi looks like a major league pitcher. He is incredibly accurate and has a vast array of pitches. This makes him a long man, not a lefty specialist. Ryota Igarashi had an up and down spring, but never truly impressed me. I do love a good splitter, so he will get his chance, but I don't think he'll prove to be the 8th inning answer. He will be effective in middle innings though. If the roles are defined properly, I think the pen can be pretty darn good, but there is also the chance it gets flubbed up and creates problems. Luckily, even in that case, there are arms waiting in Buffalo.
The Bench:
Frank Catalanotto: Great last name, Italian, plays all kinds of positions, what else can you want. You need a guy like this on the roster, but I don't know if he'll stick around. It depends on what they want to do if Murphy lose his 1st base job.
Fernando Tatis: Great last name, all kinds of positions, not Italian, but I have a great nickname for him: "The Big Potato". Because of the nickname and his being right-handed, look for Tatis to be the downfall of Catalanotto. Tatis as a bench player I love. I just don't want him playing 100 games.
Alex Cora: As long as he spends most of the year right here on the bench, I love him on my team as that 25th player-coach.
Daniel Murphy: I have Murphy on my bench, and I think he can be a useful pinch hitter if he can find the mindset that created the hope among the Met high-ups. If he can take pitches and use the opposite field, he can be a useful pinch hitter.
Angel Pagan/Gary Matthews: I think Pagan will be the 4th outfielder when Beltran returns and Matthews will be traded or granted his release. Pagan has more range, more speed as a pinch-runner and a little better bat.
Henry Blanco: Great guy to have on a roster of pitchers with issues. He may turn into Johan's personal catcher (like he was in Minnesota) but either way, I'm glad to have him here. This is what you need in a #2 catcher: great defense, great game-calling, competent offense, and ability to work with the staff during practice.
All in all, I think the Mets are a competitive team. As much as it seems I may be overly optimistic about what we'll see this season, I think a lot of it is just curbing the negative onslaught that has followed this team from last season. This is probably a better team than the one that was picked to contend for a World Series last season. Unfortunately, several other NL Teams have improved their rosters from that point as well.
It is for THAT reason that I see the Mets as a 3rd Place team in the NL East, with a record similar to 89-73.
The Metropolitans may not have added every player their fans wanted this off-season, but they also didn't overpay for anyone (outside of Alex Cora). What they did do was add some solid depth, which is something that was missing last season, when they didn't know how badly it was necessary. Some key pick-ups combined with the development to MLB able of some key prospects (Ike Davis, Ruben Tejada, Fernando Martinez, Jenry Mejia) really fills in the bottom of that chart. This should be a season where we can watch from beginning to end, without embarrassment or shame. If the team stays moderately healthy, I think that they will be competitive to the end.
I don't know what that will mean for Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel. To tell you the truth, I would like to see them both gone at the end of the year. I like Omar, but he doesn't seem to hold the trust of ownership and I think, even though it may not be his fault, his regional and, to a lesser extent, national public image is more trouble than it's worth.
I don't like Manuel. I don't think he would inspire me to be the best I can be. He also obviously plays favorites, at times to the detriment of the team. I also like the idea that if Jerry leaves, the new manager has a chance to replace Dan Warthen at pitching coach. I don't see the positives that have come from Warthen that are the reason for him still having a job.
If you need a more in depth Mets preview than that, I don't know what to tell you.
Go Mets!
Later,
APT
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