NBA PLAYOFF PREVIEW: WESTERN CONFERENCE

Yesterday I previewed the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, so today I’ll do it all over again for the West (where we should see some “upsets”):


#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs #8 Oklahoma City Thunder

Last week in my Western Conference playoff pre-preview, I alluded to the fact that Oklahoma City had a shot at stealing the Northwest Division and gaining home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, a remarkable achievement for a team that was 23-59 one season ago. Well, the Thunder slipped up a bit down the stretch, and in this tight race that means that they have fallen all the way to #8 and will draw LA in the first round. The Lakers have struggled a bit down the stretch themselves, however they went 3-1 against the Thunder this season, so this shouldn’t be a matchup that gives them too much trouble. Pau Gasol is going to be a big problem for the Thunder’s frontline, and Kobe should be somewhat rejuvenated after sitting out some games during the last week of the season (although the broken finger he suffered back in December is still an issue). Kevin Durant aside, Oklahoma City is probably a year away from contending in the West, and considering how far they have come this year they are probably okay with that.

Prediction: Lakers in 5


#2 Dallas Mavericks vs #7 San Antonio Spurs

This is a rematch of last year’s first round series in which the 6th seeded Mavericks knocked out the 3rd seeded Spurs. To be honest, the Spurs have a good chance at returning the favor this year. Based on offensive/defensive rating, San Antonio is the more impressive team (+5.64 versus +2.88), and their W-L records aren’t so drastically different to make one think that Dallas is that much better than the Spurs. For some perspective, Dallas’ +/- is the worst of all 8 playoff teams in the West, so based on this measure it appears that Dallas has overachieved this season, even after the acquisition of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood at the trading deadline. Combine this with the fact that the Spurs are healthy and playing their best basketball down the stretch and Dallas could be in trouble. The Mavs do have some momentum coming into the playoffs, though, as they are riding a 5 game winning streak. Also, they took 3 out of 4 from the Spurs this season, so there is that, however in only 1 of those 3 wins did Duncan, Parker and Ginobili all play (this includes Wednesday’s regular season finale). This should be a close series, however the Spurs should be able to avenge their early exit from a year ago and move on.

Prediction: Spurs in 6


#3 Phoenix Suns vs #6 Portland Trailblazers

Phoenix’s dominating performance on Wednesday night in Utah comes with the reward of a matchup with arguably the weakest team in the West. Portland has been ravaged by injuries all season, and the bug bit again the other night when Brandon Roy suffered a knee injury (torn meniscus). Roy is going to have surgery and will miss the entire series, a big loss for the Blazers. On top of that, Portland isn’t a great defensive team (106.8 defensive rating), so they will have trouble defending the league’s most efficient offensive team (115.5 offensive rating). Specifically, Amare Stoudemire has become a respectable mid-range jump shooter (on top of being a monster inside), and Channing Frye has become one of the league’s top shooters from 3-point range (43.9%), so Portland’s top interior defender, Marcus Camby, will almost surely be guarding one of these two for much of the game (most likely Frye). This leaves more wiggle room for Steve Nash to do his thing in the paint and spells trouble for the Blazers unless they can really step it up on offense. They are more than capable on that end, but the Suns are playing so well right now that I just don’t see them being a legitimate threat without Brandon Roy.

Prediction: Suns in 5


#4 Denver Nuggets vs #5 Utah Jazz

This is definitely the toughest first round series to predict in the West. Both teams finished with the same record and showed flashes of being legitimate threats to dethrone the Lakers. Both teams score the ball efficiently and are middle-of-the-road defensive teams, although Utah is a bit better (105.2 DR versus 107.9 DR). One would expect Utah to have the edge, however they are the 5 seed, so Denver has the home court advantage (where they were an impressive 34-7 this season). This series has the potential to go 7 games, especially if Kenyon Martin is able to produce after sitting out 18 games with a knee injury. He saw limited minutes in Denver’s last three regular season games, but the Nuggets are going to need him to do a lot more if they want to stop Carlos Boozer. Similarly, the Jazz need Andrei Kirilenko to bounce back from his own injury to help bolster their bench, which is pretty thin even with him healthy. Denver has been through a lot down the stretch with George Karl stepping down to get treatment for cancer (he will miss at least this series) and Martin’s injury, so they seem like the more vulnerable team at this juncture. I like the Jazz in this series, but it won’t be a cakewalk. If this series goes to a Game 7, the Jazz will have a tough time pulling it out at the Pepsi Center, so let’s say they grab an early road win and take care of business at home, where they were also very good (32-9).

Prediction: Jazz in 6

I picked some names out of a hat to “predict” the rest of the Western Playoffs…just kidding (but not really):

West Semifinals

LA over Utah in 7
Phoenix over San Antonio in 7

West Finals

Phoenix over LA in 6 (upset special!)

Yours,

The BOMB