So here we are, a mere 26 hours away from Super Bowl Sunday (44.5 hours from kick-off). Sitting here now, I'm thinking, I probably should have done this preview a long time ago. We've just undergone two weeks of people constantly talking about the game and breaking down the Saints and Colts from every angle possible, and I would imagine that you are sick of hearing about it. To tell you the truth, I'm sick of hearing about it, and am barely coming up with the spirit enough to write about it. These feelings lend themselves to a very simple breakdown. So let's do it this style. Here is my position by position break down of this game (doesn't sound simple, but it is (I will try to limit it to a couple lines per position)).
The Indianapolis Colts player(s) will be listed first and the New Orleans Saints player(s) second.
K: Matt Stover vs. Garrett Hartley
Tough to hate on Hartley as he's 22-24 career, but tough to love him because he's only played 13 regular season games. Stover has the experience and is one of the most accurate kickers in history, but Hartley has the leg and the numbers thus far. I would have to call this even, a slight edge to Stover for extensive experience, especially if the kick is inside 40 yards. More likely to make a clutch short kick, Stover. More likely to boom a big surprise one, Hartley.
P: Pat McAfee vs. Thomas Morstead
They are both first year punters and both boomers. I can't really give an edge either way here. Push.
KR: Chad Simpson vs. Reggie Bush
No contest, all Saints.
Xtra DBs: Jacob Lacey/??? vs. Randall Gay/Malcom Jenkins
Significant edge to the Saints. Gay has Super Bowl experience with the patriots. Jenkins is an up and comer. He did an admirable job filling in during the season. Lacey is now seasoned after filling in for Kelvin Hayden, but it's tough to even tell who the next DB will be for Indy. So even if Jenkins/Lacey is a push, Randall Gay is well over the next Colt
CB: Kelvin Hayden/Jerraud Powers vs. Jabari Greer/Tracy Porter
I give this edge to the Saints as well. I think Jabari Greer and Kelvin Hayden are two of the more underrated cover corners in the league. Hayden has really become top-notch and has returned well from injury, Greer also returning from injury did an impeccable job against Sidney Rice last week. Jerraud Powers got his first real taste of the action this year, so although Tracy Porter is suspect at times (Brett Favre toyed with him last week and Peyton will this week), I still give him the edge over the unpolished Powers.
SS: Melvin Bullitt vs. Roman Harper
This is a tough one. They both do a real nice job. I really like Roman Harper. His job is a little more clearly defined in the defense. He does the run-help and the blitzing most of the time, and has less coverage responsibility. Bullitt will do a little of both for the Colts. Bullitt is probably a bit better in coverage and Harper a better blitzer and a little better recognition wise, but Bullitt tackles a little better. Gonna push this one too.
FS: Antoine Bethea vs. Darren Sharper
My favorite pair in this game are the Free Safeties. As I've mentioned before in this blog, I think Antoine Bethea is one of the more underrated defensive players in the league. He is a very good tackler, a good blitzer, decent in man coverage and great in a ball hawking zone role. Sharper is the NFC's Ed Reed. He will find the football, whether it be an interception or a loose fumble, and once he finds it, he's looking to score. Darren Sharper's had an incredible year this year, the equivalent of Ed Reed last season. Bethea is a Sharper in the making. Though he may never have the football intelligence of Sharper, he is a better tackler. Right now, the way Sharper has played this year, have to give him the edge though.
OLB: Phillip Wheeler/Clint Session vs. Scott Fujita/Scott Shanle
The edge here goes to the Colts. Fujita has had some very good seasons, but his best years may be behind him (still solid). Shanle is solid as well. They are both legit tacklers and good enough to stay with the limited talent in the Indy backfield. Neither can cover Joe Addai or Dallas Clark. Phillip Wheeler was a tackling machine at Georgia Tech. His playing time, thus numbers, grew significantly this year, but he is still learning the NFL game. Clint Session is beginning to become a force on the field. He is a great tackler, has a good nose for the RB and is strong enough to take them on. I love the way he plays, with his heart on his sleeve. It is Clint Session that gives the edge here to Indy.
MLB: Gary Brackett vs. Jonathan Vilma
To list all the negatives about Gary Brakett: he's a little small. There, I'm done. I have been a major supporter of Brackett. Outside of Bethea, he is the most underrated part of this defense. I'd take him in the line up over Freeney any day of the week for the Colts. He is very good in coverage, has good hands in a zone or spy position, has a great nose for the football and is strong despite his size. Vilma is a great player as well. He also finds the football, finishes hits, would be a better blitzer if either team blitzed the MLB that much, but that's not that important here, and he doesn't have the cover skills of Brackett. Edge: Indy
DE: Robert Mathis/Dwight Freeney/Raheem Brock vs. Will Smith/Bobby McCray
At full health, this is a heavy edge to the Colts. Will Smith had a great year, and Bobby McCray has really come on in the playoffs. They could give some quarterbacks some trouble, but they are nothing to brag about against the run. The Colts are probably only going to use Freeney on 3rd down and in other passing situations. That is actually not a terrible thing, as long as Freeney can execute in those situations. Raheem Brock may be the best against the run of any of the 5 DEs listed above. So if the Saints are trying to establish a running game (which they should), having Brock in there early could be beneficial. Robert Mathis is a pass rush machine, every bit the equal, at least, of Will Smith. That means that even without Freeney, Raheem Brock only needs to match Bobby McCray. APT thinks he can do that. Therefore anything Freeney can give the Colts is a plus and gives Indy the edge.
DT: Daniel Muir/Antonio Johnson vs. Sedrick Ellis/Remi Ayodele/Anthony Hargrove
This is an interesting match-up. Muir/Johnson may be better against the run right now. I think Ellis will be the best against the run of any of these players when he hits his prime, but not quite yet. I give the edge to Indy against the run until Ellis gets there. He has some trouble staying on the field as well. The Saints, however, have the best pass rusher of the bunch in their #3 Anthony Hargrove. None of the others will be a major factor in that regard. Thanks to Hargrove, I'm going to Push this.
C: Jeff Saturday/Jonathan Goodwin
This is Indy by a landslide. Jeff Saturday is everything to the center position that Peyton Manning is to the QB position as far as reading the defense and making adjustments (or almost every bit). Their relationship is unlike any other in the league. Jonathan Goodwin is sufficient; it's not his fault that he cant be compared to Saturday.
G: Ryan Lilja/Kyle DeVan vs. Carl Nicks/Jahri Evans
This is tough. The Saints are better run blockers, especially Evans. At Guard, run-blocking gets you in the pro-bowl and you can find Jahri Evans there. The Colts probably have better pass blockers and Guards number 2 and 3 if you ranked the 4. Overall I'm going to push this, likely because of the influence of Lilja an DeVan playing alongside Saturday.
T: Ryan Diem/Charlie Johnson vs. Jermon Bushrod/Jonathan Stinthcomb
The edge here goes to the colts. Bushrod and Stinthcomb have had issues protecting the passer. Luckily they have a mobile quarterback with good vision and a quick release. If the pass rush is going for Indy, it could be trouble. APT doesn't hear a lot about Diem and Johnson, which for O-lineman is usually a good thing. That means you are not getting beat, and we know by Peyton's sack numbers that these guys are not often getting beat.
TE: Dallas Clark/Colin Cloherty vs. Jeremy Shockey/Darnell Dinkins
Heavy edge to the Colts. Cloherty and Dinkins can block but are nothing special. Cloherty doesn't see the field that much anyway. Dallas Clark is light years beyond what is left of Jeremy Shockey. Shockey is talented, but is banged up (he often is) and doesn't have near the knowledge of the game nor the QB chemistry that Dallas Clark does.
WR: Reggie Wayne/Pierre Garcon/Austin Collie vs. Marques Colston/Lance Moore/Devery Henderson/Robert Meachem
This is not an easy pick. Reggie Wayne is clearly the best of the bunch by what I'd say is a good deal. Don't get me wrong, Marques Colston has great athleticism and excellent hands and feet, but he's not the receiver that Wayne is. What makes this tough is if you asked me to rank the receivers a few weeks ago. Reggie would be one, but then the Saints would have #2,3,4,&5. Garcon really stepped up last week, as did Collie. I think the two have what it takes to fill into their split and slot positions respectively for Indy. The Saints are full of athleticism. Lance Moore is not the athlete that the others are, but has some of the intangibles the rest lack. He lost a little of his chemistry with Brees from being out and slipping down the chart but can still make an impact. The thing about these receivers is they are what their QBs need. The Saints have athletes that can separate and get into space. They have a QB who is one of the best at leading receivers into space. The Colts have receivers that run disciplined routes and a #1 that will catch any ball that's to be caught. They have a QB that if you run disciplined routes will put the ball exactly where it needs to be. I will give the edge to the Saints, because Collie and Garcon have dropped some balls this year and don't have the experience quite yet to read the defenses in a way that complements their QB perfectly. (But Collie will soon. his wife quizzes him on the playbook nightly).
FB: Gijon Robinson vs. Kyle Eckel
Not sounding familiar? I understand. They don't sound familiar to me either. These guys are here for short yardage. These teams like to have receivers on the football field. Push.
RB: Joseph Addai/Donald Brown vs. Pierre Thomas/Mike Bell/Reggie Bush/Lynell Hamilton
I have to give the edge to the Saints here. Anything I'd be able to say about a colt RB, the Saints have one of their four RBs with that skill. They have the best first down runner in Pierre Thomas, the most explosive receiver in Reggie Bush, the big play runner as well in Bush, the best short yardage back in Lynell Hamilton. The Colts make up a little ground in that their backs are less predictable due to their versatility, but they still can't compare with the Saint mega-combo. Look out for Joseph Addai though. He CAN put up big games and I am never surprised to see it, even though he does not get a lot of love from APT.
QB: Peyton Manning vs. Drew Brees
Backup QB goes big-time to the Saints. I love Drew Brees. He is a great NFL quarterback. I loved him at Purdue, I loved him with the Chargers, I love him now. He is very good in the pocket, feeling pressure and shifting around, getting outside. He is incredibly accurate both in the pocket and on the run and he is incredible at throwing to space. Now saying that, even if Drew Brees is every bit the thrower of the football that Peyton Manning is (and he could be), he is at a significant disadvantage, because his Offensive Coordinator is on the sideline. Peyton Manning is the OC of the Indianapolis Colts. Their Coordinator and play caller are on the field. Combine that with the fact that he can make every throw you ever need made and how can you not take him in this game? Both of these QBs will throw the occasional pick, because they know they CAN make every throw, and both of these QBs can be hurt if they are under HEAVY duress. The edge has to go to Manning though, because he IS the offense.
Coaching: Jim Caldwell & Co vs. Sean Payton & Co
Jim Caldwell has done an admirable job handling his team, but the Saints have an advantage in scheme both offensively and defensively. The Offensive edge is neutralized by the fact that their real OC is on the field, but Greg Williams is the better defensive coach. I will almost push on the fact that Jim Caldwell has been in more big games as a member of the Colts, but we'll give the saints a very slight edge.
There is your break down, top to bottom. (yeah i know this became epic. I think we all knew it would) APT's take:
How close this game is depends on the Saints. I think the Saints can establish a running game against the Colts. If they do this will be a close game. If they don't, then they must depend on turnovers to overcome the Colt's abilities on offense. The Saints offense is more explosive, but Peyton Manning has the ability to run the offense in different ways. If he wants explosive, he can show flashes of that, if the other team is blowing up, he can run a controlled, ball hogging offense with a series of slants, hitches and screens, as well as the occasional draw and stretch. The Saints need to take this game away from Peyton Manning by running the football. If they do, then they have to hope that the Colts don't have the ball last, because you don't want to see Peyton with the ball in his hands and a chance to win a football game, because he WILL WIN THE FOOTBALL GAME.
Prediction: I think the Saints will run and run well, because Sean Payton is smart enough to know that it is the right move. This will keep the score a little lower than most predictions would have it. The game will stay close unless turnovers swing. The Saints were outplayed by the Minnesota Vikings but they couldn't hold the football. THE COLTS FUMBLED FIVE TIMES THIS SEASON (surprisingly the bucs tied them for fewest) They are not going to let that lose them a super bowl. They don't fumble and they don't committ penalties. If you want to turn them over, you are going to have to affect Peyton Manning's passes. That is up to Will Smith. I don't think he'll be able to do enough. On the other side, I think that Dwight Freeney will make ONE BIG PLAY, either hitting Brees' arm for a Gary Brackett pick or a strip sack that Robert Mathis picks up and returns for a TD and that will be the reason that the score is not within a score. The teams may trade one other turnover on picks in tight spots or some great ball hawking by the FSs. Without Freeney's big play, this is probably a 24-21 football game. The only thing that can change it is a big play in the return game by Reggie Bush. I don't believe the Colts will let that happen, so why don't we say...
Indianapolis Colts 31, New Orleans Saints 21
MVP: Robert Mathis- 2 sacks, 1 Fumb Rec, 1 Def TD, 1 Pass Defl
APT
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