Championship Preview Part Uh

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

A lot has been said of this game, and most of it means very little. Whether or not the Colts would have won in week 16, to me, has nothing to do with this week. These are different Jets and different Colts. These are confident Jets coming off four straight wins against playoff caliber teams (say what you will about the colt contest). And these are Colts with something to play for. So let's forget about week 16 and break down week 20.

What needs to happen for New York Jets to win.

1. The Jets never trail by more than 7 points, and more than likely they will have to lead for the entire contest, including leading by more than one score late in the 4th quarter.
2. Darelle Revis eliminates Reggie Wayne.
3. The Jets are able to pressure Peyton Manning with 5 pass rushers.
4. Continued success from the running game.
5. Brad Smith must make an impact
6. The Jets must force 2 more turnovers than they allow.
7. Jet FG magic must make its next victim Matt Stover
8. Lito Sheppard is able to legitimately stay with Pierre Garcon, leaving the rest of the Jet Defense to contend with Austin Collie and Dwight Clark over the middle. The Jets must be able to trust their two outside corners to eliminate colt receivers with only modest help deep or else they will not be able to get to Manning before he finds a receiver.
9. Mark Sanchez cannot have the game in his hands. The Jets must do what they've been doing in getting a lead with only the occasional help from Sanchez. He must be able to do his work on first and second down, maybe get a few looks deep on play-action. He cannot be forced to make plays on third down.
10. They must not let confidence turn to cockiness. Even with a lead, the jets cannot let up. The Jets D let up a little late against San Diego. If you leave yourself open like that against the man that is Peyton Manning, you will not come out alive.

OR

1. Curtis Painter plays 40 plus minutes.


What needs to happen for the Colts to win:

1.Force the Jets to bring more than 5 rushers, leaving the inside receivers open on short slants and hitches.
2. Establish some semblance of running threat. They don't have to run for any benchmark of yardage, but simply show on a few plays that if the Jets completely sell out towards the QB, they can break a gain with a draw or a screen.
3. Force Mark Sanchez to drive the Jets. Bring Bullitt into the box and sell out run until proven otherwise. The Colts can score enough against the Jet D, as good as they are, that they can risk going full fledge against the run until the Jets prove they have a legitimate passing threat.
4. Don't make too many mistakes.


If the Colts don't make an abundance of mistakes, they will win this football game. Don't get me wrong, the Colts are not a complete football team, but neither are the Jets and the Colts are the better incomplete football team. The most complete teams in this playoffs have already been eliminated. In my opinion they were the Packers and the Cowboys. Granted, parts of each of those teams certainly did not play to their fullest in each of the losses. But that is to be expected, as quite often in one game playoffs a hot team is the team to look out for. Here, we have two hot teams. The Colts have won 15 straight games when they have tried to win and the Jets have won 4 in a row, including the dismissal of the previous leading "hot" team.

The Jets need to lead this game from start to finish to win. If the Colts get in front early, that will shake the Jets defense. The Jets Defense needs to establish itself as dominant, so that they can maintain confidence, especially in the secondary. If Revis and Sheppard can mostly account for the outside receivers, that leaves 3-4 jets in the middle (likely jim leonhard, kerry rhodes, david harris and dwight lowry) to take care of the other two receivers. If the Jets can hurry Manning with 5 rushers, they have a good chance of being able to cover. If it takes more than 5, they better get to Peyton in one hell of a hurry.

I repeat: the Jets need to lead this game from start to finish to win. If the Colts get in front early, that will shake the Jets offense. This will make Mark Sanchez a bigger factor in the game than he can be. If Sanchez is a BIG factor, it can only be because he is turning the ball over. And trust me, if Sanchez is forced to win this game, he WILL turn the ball over. He has played very well in his confined role so far this post season, but he has yet to play well outside a role like that. He has yet to play well when he needs to bring the Jets back. Not only, can the Jets not allow Sanchez the chance do be a negative impact, they cannot allow Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to be a positive impact for the Colts. If a team is forced to throw, the Colts Defense increases exponentially. They have two of the best pure pass rushers in the game, their corners are sufficient with Kelvin Hayden back and the rookies getting almost a full season of experience. Their safeties are excellent, led by Antoine Bethea (who is a underground ball hawk) and Melvin Bullitt who has become a sure tackler and is better in coverage than Bob Sanders (No disrespect to Sanders, he can change a defense...also note: no disrespect to Ty Lawson). If the Jets turn the Colts Defense into a pass defense, they will not succeed. They need early production from Thomas Jones, continued explosiveness from Shonn Greene, a curveball or two from Brad Smith, a strong pass rush, a couple turnovers and a prayer.

APT's prediction: The Jets will have some early running success and will keep the game close for a half. However, unless the Jets can score with Defense or Special Teams, they will not score enough points to win this game. The Jet Defense is very good, and will get better in coming years when they acquire a pass-rusher or two, but I don't see them holding Peyton Manning to under 21 points. Manning will feel some pressure, but expect the Colts to do what they do, use short passes, screens and draws in place of a true running game to loosen up a blitzing defense just enough to give Peyton Manning time to drive down the field. Sanchez will have a chance to bring his team back, but end up helplessly under pressure, losing a fumble or throwing a pick in the fourth quarter, leading to the extra points in the margin of victory.

Indianapolis Colts 28, New York Jets 13.

APT