Championship Preview Part Deux

Although it's a terrible memory to think back to Katrina and the devastation that accompanied her, especially in light of the recent tragedy in Haiti (please give what you can, APT will certainly be doing so), although these memories still haunt many, they will forever be connected to the re-emergence of this football team. Behind the acquisition of Drew Brees and the support of the city of New Orleans, the Saints found there way in the 06-07 NFC Championship before falling to the Chicago Bears. BUT...that was at Soldier's Field. Tomorrow's game is a different story. We all know that the Superdome is going to be loud, as loud as any stadium, perhaps, this side of Qwest Field. So let's get to the breakdown...



Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Looking at this game, it appears as though it is going to come down to one thing: The Play of the Offensive Line. And this will continue to be what it comes down to so long as Ray Edwards and Kevin Williams are healthy enough to contribute. The Viking front four of the Williams Wall, Edwards and Jared Allen pressured Tony Romo last week as recklessly as I've seen a D-Line pressure since the NY Giant Super Bowl run two years ago. I don't know if they could possibly repeat that performance, even if Ray Edwards and Kevin Williams were healthy. Against a possibly overrated, but certainly above average offensive line of Dallas, they pushed them around 4 on 5 like it was nothing. The challenge is being focused, this week, on the Saints OTs.

Jermon Bushrod will take the responsibility of Jared Allen, who put up another 14.5 sack season for the Vikings, while Jonathan Stinchcomb will be assigned a hopefully (for competition's sake) healthy Ray Edwards. I think this is the more important of the two trench match-ups, as although Brett Favre has been very good all season, I don't think the Vikings passing offense can match explosiveness with the Saints outside of Sidney Rice. I just don't see the Viking Secondary being able to stay with all the weapons the Saints have in the passing game. Unless you are going to play dime packages all day (and the Saints running game is strong enough to prohibit that), you are going to see match-ups with safeties and linebackers on the likes of Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush. Drew Brees is probably the single best QB in the NFL at distributing the football without bias. Marques Colston is almost certainly the Saints best receiver, but I believe that the Saints can maintain their offense if Colston were to be shut down. To shut down the Saints Passing Game, you need to do what the Vikings did to Romo last week. Because, if you give Brees any time whatsoever, he has too many weapons for your defensive backs and backers to handle.

As far as the Vikings Offense vs. the Saints Defense, it is a similar story. You can run the football on the Saints Defense and you can throw the football on the Saints Defense, but only biconditionally. R<->T (for our logic fans out there) You can run the ball if and only if you can throw the football. The Saints Defense has shown bouts of greatness all year. But if you analyze this greatness situationally, it is mostly done playing with a lead. The Saints have Jabarri Greer and Tracy Porter back and healthy. Greer and Porter were very impressive in coverage early in the season, and their return allows you to push Malcom Jenkins and Rudy Gay down into the nickel and dime back slots, which (parallel to the mets pitching rotation I talked about earlier) takes them from a spot of which they are capable to a spot where they can excel. That combined with Roman Harper and Darren Sharper, one of the top couple COMBOS of safeties in the NFL this season, this defense is ready to get a lead and fight the pass. Bobby McCray and more notably Will Smith (13 sacks) have had a good year pressuring from the outside. You'll see Anthony Hargrove (5 sacks) come in to rush the passer on the inside in lieu of Sedrick Ellis or Remi Ayodele on passing downs to help boost the rush. The Vikings can't let the Saints get out early, and they must get Adrian Peterson involved in this game. He has struggled (for Peterson) in recent weeks and was shut down by Dallas. The combination of a roaring Superdome and this Defense's success against an offense forced to pass could end up being too much to handle if they are unable to be balanced.

APT's prediction: I think that this is a different game if it's in the Metrodome. I don't see the Saint's fans letting the Saints come out flat in this one. I think they will come out on fire and it will be up to Minnesota to match that intensity. And I don't think the Saints will let down these fans. I think that the Vikings will come out early ready to play. There are fierce leaders on these teams and this will not be a walk over in either direction as the games were last week. I believe there are enough deficiencies on these Defenses to allow the Offenses to take control early, trading touchdowns, but at some point there will be a big play or a turnover that changes momentum. Because of the home field, as well as Peterson and Favre's propensity for turning the ball over, I would have to assume that big turnover will go the Saint's way. We also must remember the impact of big plays on special teams, as we should see Reggie Bush and (if healthy) Percy Harvin, two of the most explosive men in the NFL in the open field, handling returns in this game. So a prediction could easily be thrown by a huge special teams play (or blunder for that matter) Once the Saints get in the drivers seat, I think the defense will play inspired football and be able to hold the Vikings. If this game came down to the kickers late, I like Ryan Longwell over Garret Hartley, but I believe this will be a game of Touchdowns.

After a first half that finishes around 17-14 NO, the Saints will get a big play in the 3rd quarter leading to a touchdown and changing the game. I think they'll carry that lead through the fourth quarter, and even if the Vikings get the chance to bring it back close, they will not have the time or capability to turn the tide.

New Orleans Saints 34, Minnesota Vikings 28


APT