World Cup Prediction

I had been asked to put forth a World Cup Bracket Prediction. I filled out a bracket on ESPN last week, but had forgotten to throw it up. So, for all those interested, here was my best guess, greatly influenced by my Italian bias, I must admit.

GROUP GRADUATES

Group A

France
Mexico

Group B

Argentina
Nigeria

Group C

England
USA

Group D

Germany
Ghana

Group E

Netherlands
Cameroon

Group F

Italy
Paraguay

Group G

Brazil
Portugal

Group H

Spain
Chile


SECOND ROUND

France def. Nigeria
England def. Ghana
Argentina def. Mexico
Germany def. USA
Paraguay def. Netherlands
Brazil def. Chile
Italy def. Cameroon
Spain def. Portugal


QUARTERFINALS

England def. France
Argentina def. Germany
Brazil def. Paraguay
Italy def. Spain


SEMIFINALS

Brazil def. England
Italy def. Argentina


FINALS

Italy def. Brazil


-APT

NBA Finals Game 4

I know I have been coming hard with game by game analysis of the Finals, but sadly my focus was distracted last night. From what I was able to gather this see-saw battle was decided by the tenacity of the Boston Celtics bench. Despite picking up 2 technical fouls, the foursome of Rasheed Wallace, Glen "Big Baby" Davis, Tony Allen and Nate Robinson led the Celtics on a 4th quarter run to put the game out of reach and even things back up at 2-2. I've read how big a risk Doc Rivers took by leaving his bench out there. I feel like it was an easy decision. Granted, Doc should still be commended for sticking to his guns and ignoring the names and numbers on the jerseys, as some would not do the same.

For the sake of consistency, here are 3 things for the Lakers to focus on in Game 5, even though I did not get enough of Game 4 to know exactly what they were donig wrong.

1. Don't forget about the inside game in crunch time.

2. Andrew Bynum should guard Kevin Garnett when the starting 10 are on the floor.

3. Keep eyes open when slashing to the rim. Take advantage of the collapsing defense on a Kobe or Fisher drive. Especially when Jordan Farmar or Shannon Brown are available on the perimeter, look for the kick and the easy 3.

-APT

The Chicago Blackhawks

A BELATED CONGRATULATIONS

to the Chicago Blackhawks. The Hawks finished off the Philadelphia Flyers in Overtime of Game 6 Wednesday night to win their first Stanley Cup in 49 years.

All analysis is useless at this point, as the names are etched on the cup. So let's just let the Blackhawks enjoy their moment and leave the Flyers in peace, without scrutinizing their difficult defeat.

-APT

WORLD CUP PREVIEW – PART 2

Group E

Featuring: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon

Most intriguing game: Cameroon vs. Denmark (June 19)

Thoughts: This is another intriguing group that somewhat resembles Group B. The Netherlands is the strongest team in the group and should have no problem advancing. They aren’t as talented in the back as they have been in past years, however they are still solid and boast some of the most electric forwards in the tournament in Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie. Robben is coming off an injury suffered in a friendly last week, however, so it remains to be seen if he will be in top shape. Even without him, the Dutch are talented enough to make it through to the second round at least.

Denmark returns to the World Cup after missing out in 2006, and they are hoping that 33 year old striker Jon Dahl Tomasson has enough left in the tank to lead them into the knockout stage. They likely will need to get past Cameroon in order to advance, which certainly isn’t a given.

Speaking of Cameroon, they are also back after missing out on the party in Germany four years ago. They also feature an elite striker in Samuel Eto’o, who had a bit of a down year with Inter this season, but is just one year removed from netting 34 goals for Barcelona. With opponents focusing their attention on him, Cameroon will likely need other players to step up if they want to see the round of 16.

Unlike the previous two teams, Japan did make an appearance in Germany, although it was one they would like to forget. They only managed a scoreless draw in their three group matches, certainly a disappointing finish after making it to the second round as co-hosts in 2002. As a matter of fact, they have never won a World Cup match outside of that 2002 run, so needless to the say they are the clear underdogs of the group.

Prediction: I have had practically every African team advancing to the second round thus far, and Cameroon is one of the stronger teams on the continent. So I see them joining the Dutch in the second round.


Group F

Featuring: Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia, New Zealand

Most intriguing game: Italy vs. Paraguay (June 14)

Thoughts: This is without a doubt the weakest group in the tournament, as Italy and Paraguay should have no problem taking care of Slovakia and New Zealand. Italy of course will be defending its title, but this team is not as strong as they were four years ago. This is mostly due to the fact that they are four years older, and seem to be lacking in younger players that can provide the veterans with a spark. They are of course still very talented, and this should be more than enough to push them through.

Paraguay has been one of the most consistent South American teams over the past couple decades, and seem poised to finally make it past the round of 16 this year. If they can take care of Italy in their first match, they can lock down the group and perhaps find themselves with a favorable matchup in the knockout stage. They most likely will need top striker Roque Santa Cruz to overcome his recent struggles if they want to go deeper into the tournament.

Slovakia will be making their first appearance in the World Cup as an independent nation, and while they are not the weakest team in this group (by a mile), they would probably be the weakest team in about half of the other groups. They will certainly need to steal points from either Italy or Paraguay if they want to move on to the second round.

New Zealand is without a doubt the weakest team in the tournament, which means they should be that much fun to root for if they manage to pull off an improbable upset. The chances of this happening are slim, however stranger things have happened.

Prediction: Seeing Slovakia or New Zealand make a run would be quite memorable, however it seems quite likely that Italy and Paraguay will emerge from Group F (though not necessarily in that order).


Group G

Featuring: Brazil, Portugal, Ivory Coast, North Korea

Most intriguing game: Portugal vs. Ivory Coast (June 15)

Thoughts: One of these teams is not like the others. The 2010 edition of the “Group of Death” is somewhat diluted by the presence of North Korea, one of the weakest teams in the tournament. However that shouldn’t take away from the quality of the other three teams in the group. Brazil is considered by many the favorite to win it all, and not without good reason. This team is absolutely loaded, and it all starts with Kaka in the midfield. He and his fellow Brazilians will be looking to leave their mark on this World Cup after their disappointing finish four years ago.

Portugal also have high hopes after reaching the semifinals in 2006, and they will look to Cristiano Ronaldo to lead them deep into the tournament once again. There are a few groups in which they would be the top team, yet they had the bad fortune of landing in a group where there is a realistic chance they may not advance. It will most likely hinge on their game against Ivory Coast. If they stumble, then they will likely need points against Brazil and a rout of North Korea to move on.

The Ivory Coast is a serious threat to the two elite teams in this group, but in order for them to make some noise they will need to have Chelsea striker Didier Drogba on the field. Drogba broke his arm in a friendly last week, and his status is still uncertain for the World Cup. Unfortunately for the Ivory Coast, their most critical match comes first, against Portugal. If he is unable to play against Portugal, the Elephants could be looking at an early exit.

North Korea are the likely whipping boys of the group, although they have a history of scoring upsets at the World Cup (such as their 1-0 win over Italy in 1966). Soccer is a sport in which it takes only one crazy bounce to open the door for an underdog, so perhaps North Korea will be the beneficiary of such a bounce.

Prediction: It is tough to pick the Ivory Coast to move on without Drogba, although they are still a talented team without him. Either way, look for Brazil and Portugal to move on.


Group H

Featuring: Spain, Chile, Honduras, Switzerland

Most intriguing game: Spain vs. Chile (June 25)

Thoughts: The final group is home to another major favorite in South Africa, Spain. The Spaniards have been arguably the top team on the planet since the 2006 World Cup. After dismantling Poland 6-0 in their final tune-up the other day, they look ready to make a deep run. There are some concerns that Fernando Torres may not be in top form coming back from an injury, but even if he needs a few games to shake the rust off, this team should still have no problem winning the group, as Chile is their only serious threat.

Speaking of Chile, they finished second in the gauntlet that is COMNEBOL qualifying, finishing only one point behind Brazil. This will be their first World Cup since 1998, and this is a hungry young team that is prime for a breakthrough. Look for them to give Spain all they can handle in the final game of the group stage. If they prevail in that match, look for them to use that as a springboard to a deep run in the tournament.

Honduras is making only its second appearance in the World Cup, and is a surprisingly old team for a group making its first World Cup appearance in 28 years. There are some talented players on roster, like midfielder Wilson Palacios, but they need to play some inspired soccer if they are going to make it through to the second round.

Finally, rounding out the field of 32 is Switzerland. They are going to need their star, Alexander Frei, to recreate some of the magic he displayed during 2006 if they want to make it to the kockout stage for the second consecutive tournament. They get the first crack at Spain, so if they can manage a draw (or better) that might give them the confidence to knock off the other two denizens of Group H.

Prediction: Spain should win this group, and Chile is a good bet to make it to the round of 16 as well. However don’t count out the other two teams, as Chile hasn’t exactly proven itself on the national stage.


I will wait until the knockout bracket is set before making those predictions, however I will say that I’m feeling that this might be Brazil’s year…again.


To quote the great soccer fan Porky Pig (I may not be able to back that up)….”That’s all folks!” Enjoy the world’s greatest sporting event…I know I will.

-The BOMB

WORLD CUP PREVIEW – PART 1

The grandest sporting event in the world kicks off on Friday, so it would be inexcusable of us to not offer up a preview of the action. Today I’ll preview groups A-D, then tomorrow I’ll (slide) tackle the latter four groups. Without further ado…


Group A

Featuring: France, Mexico, Uruguay, South Africa

Most intriguing game: South Africa vs. Mexico (June 11)

Thoughts: This is perhaps the most deceptively treacherous group in the entire tournament. The big name for sure is defending runners-up France, although they are an aging team that is not the threat to make a deep run in the tournament that they have been in past years (a 1-0 loss to China in their final tune-up last week speaks to this). And don’t forget about the fact that they might not even be in South Africa if it weren’t for Thierry Henry’s “Le Hand of God” goal against Ireland during qualifying. With that said, they are still a very talented team that features one of the top players in the world, Franck Ribery, and they certainly would love to prove all their doubters wrong.

The strongest team in the group may be Uruguay, led by accomplished striker Diego Forlan. South American teams are generally tough outs in the World Cup, and this team certainly is no exception with their aggressive style of play. France needs to be ready for them otherwise they could find themselves in a big hole after Day 1.

Mexico will be looking to move through to the Round of 16 for the fifth consecutive tournament, and they definitely have the horses to do so. Led by veteran defender/midfielder Rafael Marquez, the Mexicans have looked impressive in their tune-up matches, including a 2-1 victory over defending champion Italy last week. They do draw the unenviable task of playing the host nation in the first match of the tournament, however, so this could potentially be a serious hindrance to their advancement.

South Africa is by far the weakest team in this group, and many expect them to become the first host ever to not advance past the group stage. This certainly is a realistic scenario, however while their group is strong overall, it does not possess a single elite team. Their first game against Mexico should tell us everything we need to know about this team. Personally, I expect them to pick off Mexico and possibly France en route to the knockout stage.

Prediction: If Mexico falls to South Africa, they are probably done. I also think France is due for a disappointment this year. This leaves Uruguay and the hosts as the survivors.


Group B

Featuring: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece

Most intriguing game: Nigeria vs. South Korea (June 22)

Thoughts: Until further notice, this group belongs to Argentina. They are the class of Group B on paper, and should have no trouble advancing, despite their lackluster qualifying campaign. Having the best player in the world certainly helps, and Lionel Messi is certainly on top of his game coming off a season in which he scored 45 goals in 46 games for Barcelona, including 8 in the Champions League. Perhaps the only thing that can derail Argentina is their coach, Diego Maradona, who is considered by many experts as one of the weakest coaches in the tournament.

After Argentina, the second ticket out of the group is pretty up for grabs. South Korea probably has the best shot at it, as this will be their seventh consecutive appearance in the World Cup (including their run to the semi-finals as host in 2002). Led by Park Ji-Sung, the South Koreans most important match may be their group finale against Nigeria, although getting a favorable result against Argentina certainly wouldn’t hurt their chances of advancing.

Speaking of the Super Eagles, they are making their first appearance in the World Cup since 1998, and will look to their strikers to give them an edge in what should be a very defensive-minded group (outside of Argentina). One particularly explosive option up front for Nigeria is Obafemi Martins, who scored two goals in their berth-clinching win against Kenya in qualifying.

Rounding out the group is Greece, who despite making only their second appearance ever at the World Cup are certainly a threat to advance to the Round of 16 as well. Their defense under coach Otto Rehhegal is always top notch, but they will need to find a way to score more goals if they want to move deep into the tournament. This strategy helped them win Euro 2004, but ever since then Greece has struggled in high profile competitions as teams seem to have their counter-attacking ways figured out.

Prediction: As stated above, look for Argentina to win the group, and look for the winner of the Nigeria-South Korea game to move on as well. My guess is that Nigeria scores another win for the host continent.


Group C

Featuring: England, United States, Algeria, Slovenia

Most intriguing game: Algeria vs. Slovenia England vs. USA (June 12)

Thoughts: A lot has been made of the England-USA game on Saturday, mostly because of a game played between the two sides 60 years ago. Yes, that was a monumental win for US soccer, however its significance is muted by the fact that the US didn’t return to the World Cup for another 40 years. This time around, first place in Group C will likely be at stake, and it should be a good test of how far the US has come since their disappointment in 2006.

England is the clear favorite of the group, and even if they slip up against the US they should be able to rebound against weaker sides Algeria and Slovenia. With players such as Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard back for another go, England fans have realistic dreams of watching their boys host the World Cup trophy, and anything less will certainly be a disappointment.

The United States also have high hopes for this World Cup, after knocking off Spain and giving Brazil all they could handle in the Confederations Cup last year. This team still doesn’t match up with the top teams in the tournament talent-wise, but they are getting there. Landon Donovan is viewed by many as one of the better players in the world when he is in top form, and the rest of the squad features a handful of players that have made their mark playing in Europe. Despite this, the US will need to be nearly tactically flawless if they want to progress deep into the tournament.

Algeria provided a bit of a shocker when they defeated Egypt to earn the last African berth in the tournament. Not viewed by many as a threat to advance, the Desert Foxes will depend on a stout defense and solid play in the midfield to get them through. The pressure will be on striker Abdelkader Ghezzal to get the job done up front. If he fizzles, Algeria’s stay will likely be a short one.

Slovenia on the other hand is a more serious threat to England and the US’s place in the knockout stage. Slovenia knocked off Euro 2008 semifinalist Russia in order to qualify, so this is a team that shouldn’t be taken lightly. They gave up the second fewest goals during European qualifying, so if they can find some goals up front they could very well end up advancing. Keep an eye on Milivoje Novakovic, Slovenia’s main threat up top.

Prediction: Algeria has the potential to be a nuisance and Slovenia’s defense will give teams problems, however England and the US should make it through as they are the group’s best teams.


Group D

Featuring: Germany, Ghana, Australia, Serbia

Most intriguing game: Ghana vs. Serbia (June 13)

Thoughts: This is another group that doesn’t look too stacked to the untrained eye, but in reality each one of these teams has a realistic shot at making it through to the second round. Germany is understandably the favorite, but there are definite question marks surrounding the team. They will be without star midfielder Michael Ballack, who was injured at the end of the Premier League season, and this will be their first World Cup without the brick wall that is Oliver Kahn since 1998. They still sport a dangerous attack, however, so they should still emerge from Group D.

Ghana will be looking to duplicate their success from 2006, and with a crop of impressive young players that won the under-20 World Cup just last year, they are again a talented team that could potentially explode into the second round. They will be without injured star Michael Essien, but German transplant Kevin-Prince Boateng should be able to step in and solidify the midfield next to Steven Appiah. Their match against Serbia may be the key to them returning to the round of 16.

Serbia is a team that is stocked with talent but is lacking in equivalent success in recent tournaments. As Serbia and Montenegro in 2006, they were eliminated without winning a single game, and they didn’t even qualify for Euro 2008. This is a dangerous team, however, especially in the midfield, and a run to the second round isn’t out of the question.

Finally, Australia is probably the weakest team in the group, but they are still a strong side that has the potential to spring an upset or two (as they did in 2006). Led by Tim Cahill, the Socceroos have a stiff task ahead of them, but they are a veteran team that may be able to take advantage of some of the inexperienced players in the group. Goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer is a gamechanger in net and could steal a game or two for Australia.

Prediction: Ghana and Australia may have trouble rekindling the magic from 2006, so look for Germany and Serbia to break through to the round of 16.


-The BOMB

Part 2 still to come...

Strasburg's Night

Steven Strasburg put together a hell of a debut, to please the countless hypers that have been doting on him.

7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 14 K, 0 BB, 94 Pitches

I just buzzed through the 7 innings of Strasburg pitching and he certainly is impressive. He consistently through 97-99 with his 4-seamer. The 2-seamer was 95 and 95. His curveball is incredibly dynamic, very hard and very sharp-breaking, and he threw a change up that, when it worked, fell right off the table. It was only the pirates, but it was no fluke that he struck out 14 hitters. The Pirate hitters were able to adjust to the fastball the second time around the order, and were not helpless against the changeup (Delwyn Young hit one over the right field wall) but they were hapless, hopeless and helpless against that curveball. It reminds me a lot of Kerry Wood's power curveball, when it was great, and a little bit of Adam Wainwright. What was crazy was how, for the late 2nd, early 3rd time through the batting order, the hitters were once again lost on the fastball. This was the impact that the curveball has. Strasburg also set himself up for strikeouts later on, by being consistently accurate in the strike zone with the fastball early. This led Pirate hitters to chase the fastball up in the later innings (Strasburg struck out the last 6 hitters he faced, most on fastballs).

He is a long way from Cooperstown, but the kid surely will be fun to watch.

Note

The Bolt is curious what happened to Chien-Ming Wang. All this Strasburg talk, and the possibility of trading for Roy Oswalt has put the Wang acquisition completely on the back burner. I will look into what's going on with Wang's rehab and get back to you all in the next MLB Sprites.

-APT

NBA Finals Game Three

Some quick analysis as Game 3 comes to an end, with LA taking back home court by stealing the first game at the TD Garden. This series has been great to watch, as the stories are coming from different places every game.

Let's not focus on the negatives from todays game. We all saw Kobe's cold shooting night, Ray Allen's non-existent shooting night, more questionable officiating, etc. But there are some major performances that merit mentioning.

Formerly in Absentia.

Each team seemed to pick up a free agent between games 2 and 3. Whoever was wearing number 5 for the Celtics must not have been in LA. Kevin Garnett was moving like he had a week off, when in reality this was his shortest turnaround between games. The Celts got him involved early with easy buckets. KG took that confidence and added an increased agility in the low post to put together a huge night when the Celtics needed it. Lamar Odom finally showed up for the Lakers. He shot 5-5 from the field, adding some rebounds and solid defense.

Tighten it Up.

Defense was the story of this game. The Lakers played great defense all game long. Everyone on the floor was involved. Not only Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol were affecting shots, but Kobe Bryant had multiple key blocks, and Shannon Brown and Lamar Odom were altering looks. Derek Fisher also drew a couple of offensive fouls, and Ron Artest once again played great defense on Paul Pierce, and made a big play late stealing poking the ball away twice, leading to a turnover. The Laker length crowded the floor, giving the Celtics little room to operate, as Boston once again longed for the threat of outside shooting. The Lakers even jumped out to block multiple three point attempts. The Celtics also played magnificent defense while coming back in the second half. They were tremendously disciplined, squaring up the Laker ball handlers one-on-one. Tony Allen was great against Bryant in the 3rd quarter. Although I still think the Lakers underused Pau Gasol in the second half, I thought the Lakers did a much better job denying him prime position. If there was a stat for average distance from the basket, when receiving the ball in the post, Gasol's ADFTBWRTBITP was probably a foot further, at least in Game 3. Rasheed Wallace was especially strong denying post positions, and Kendrick Perkins was excellent defending upon post entry. The Celtics also made several deflections on attempted entry passes. Overall they were much improved defending the Laker bigs.

Fresh Off the Bench.

I thought Luke Walton did a great job in the first half for the Lakers. Ron Artest got 2 quick fouls and had to sit. This could have been a spectacular opportunity for Paul Pierce to finally get something going offensively. But Walton was very disciplined defending him and adjusting on pick and rolls. Pierce later piled up his own fouls, and thought hitting 3 3s and a big bucket late, he still is struggling to find a rhythm from the get-go of these games. Walton added a few points, but more importantly kept Pierce off that rhythm. Glen "Big Baby" Davis, again, was a key contributor for the Celts. He was incredibly tough in the post, using power moves to work through position against the longer Laker defenders toward the basket. He also, once again, brought high energy play to the floor. Big Baby brought down all of his rebounds emphatically, working the crowd and scrambling for loose balls.

Ice in the Veins

The main story of this game, however, was Derek Fisher. Fisher showed why he's not the only Laker guard that has won 4 championships. On a poor shooting night for Kobe, when the Celtic defense was holding strong, Fisher used the pick and roll to continually drive hard left and either push to the rim or pull up and bank a tough shot home. Fisher has never been afraid to take a big shot. He took many today. Fisher finally sealed the game running the floor against a Celtic transition defense who seemed half-hearted (despite there being plenty of time), turned hard around Kevin Garnett, drove strong to the hole, and despite getting clobbered by Glen Davis AND Ray Allen, softly dropped the ball off the glass, and confidently completed the three point play.

Note

There is one play that I wanted to bring up. The referees were able to use instantly replay multiple times in this game to correct out of bounds calls on the floor late in the 4th quarter. However, one in particular leads me to question the specifics of the rule. On a rebound of a missed free throw, Lamar Odom went up with two hands to corral the ball. With the ball already in Odom's hands, Rajon Rondo went up for the ball and ripped away Odom's left wrist forcing the ball to spill out of bounds. The referee initially called the ball out of bounds off Rondo, which was completely inaccurate. The officials went to the replay, where they are allowed to change the call of which team last touched the ball, but not anything else. So in this case, it was obvious the ball was last touched by Lamar Odom, it was blatant that Rondo fouling him is what caused the play. The referees had to award the ball to the Celtics despite this, at a big moment in the game. It troubles me that this is the case. Even if they can't call a foul after the fact, I feel like you have to be able to recognize the course of events and give the correct team the ball.

The Big Three

As we've done the previous two game, we will give the Celtics three things to work on for Game 4.

1. Obviously they need the threat of the long jumper. They didn't have it with Ray Allen on the bench in foul trouble in game one. They had it with Allen hot as hell in game two. And they didn't have it with Ray Ray cold as Ice in Game 3. I imagine you'll see Allen somewhere between his 8 3s and his 0-13. If Pierce can get free at all, that would help.

2. The Celtics need to be better on the Defensive boards. As impressive as Rondo's rebounding ability is, he cannot lead the Celtics in rebounds. Kevin Garnett needs to be stronger on the boards. He won't pull down 20 anymore, but he needs to be strong when he has the opportunities. Jeff Van Gundy has pointed out several instances of Garnett going up with one hand tipping the ball instead of pulling it down with two hands. The Celtics need Garnett to be a presence, with help from Kendrick Perkins. Big Baby has been great but he doesn't have the height to compete for the ball with the Laker big men.

3. The Celtics need to find a go to guy for late in these games. Paul Pierce has been off his game, thanks to Artest. He still might be a candidate to find the baskeball one-on-one late. He showed some signs of a late game surge tonight. Rondo doesn't have the ability to hit tough jumpers, so he is stuck trying to drive and kick. Ray Allen hasn't shown the ability to create his own shot. KG is now a candidate after a strong showing in Game 3. He was good down low and strong with the jump shot. He might be the guy for Boston to go to late. He can post up Gasol and pull Bynum out of the paint and either shoot over the top or dribble around him. The Lakers are going to have Kobe most games and showed that they have other options as well. The Celtics need to have a counter to that.

-APT

Steven Strasburg Trade Rumors?

No there is not any reality to the title of this post. As you know, Steven Strasburg makes his long-awaited Major League debut tonight. I will try my best to see the game, although I may have too many things to record. The Nationals were wise to begin his career against the Pirates. I imagine he will have a satisfactory debut against that line up. Often times, with this kind of hype, teams will start their prospect on the road, but the Nationals simply couldn't turn down the opportunity to sell out their stadium. They will get Strasburg starts at Nationals Park as often as possible for economic benefit.

Anyway, the title of this email comes from something I heard on WFAN (The New York Sports Radio station I listen to at work). Steve Phillips does a segment with WFAN's nationally renowned radio host Mike Francessa each week. Apparently, in his most recent segment, Phillips made it known that he would trade Steven Strasburg straight up for Roy Oswalt. Now, Phillips' GM abilities are widely in questions, as his tenure with the NY Mets is far more well-known for his trading Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano than for his drafting discovery and development of Jose Reyes and David Wright. However, Phillips was probably an average GM all-in-all and his opinion certainly merits consideration.

So let's consider it. If the Astros were to trade Roy Oswalt they would probably ask for the teams top pitching prospect, as well as another top prospect, and perhaps one or two other decent or young prospects to complete a deal. As phenomenal as everyone has already pencilled in Strasburg's career to be, we don't actually know how he is going to turn out. If any other team was asked to give there top pitching prospect for Roy Oswalt in a 1-for-1 trade, I would imagine they'd be perfectly happy to get the proven Oswalt (assuming they had the ability to try and sign him). Lost in all this hype is the fact that, as of right now, Steven Strasburg is just a prospect. Tonight he will become a Major League player and perhaps a great one. He definitely has the stuff to pitch at this level but it is certainly impossible to know if he is a hall of fame pitcher. It is impossible to know if he will ever turn out to be an ace, the way that Oswalt has been for years in Houston. In baseball, you rarely ever trade major league talent for major league talent, save a rare case of swapping bad contracts or players that have worn out their welcome. Almost all baseball trades of any consequence consist of trading multiple prospects for a proven commodity. If the Nationals had a chance to trade a single prospect (of which they are paying heavily before they even know what he can do) for a proven MLB stud. If Oswalt is not what you want, make the same argument for Doc Halladay or Johan Santana or whomever you consider to be an ace. Perhaps I wouldn't make the trade for Oswalt, but would think differently if it were a younger pitcher, like a Jon Lester or Ubaldo Jimenez. However, the reason that the Nationals CAN'T make this trade has nothing to do with talent.

The Nationals can't AFFORD to make this trade. As great as Jon Lester and Ubaldo Jimenez are, Steven Strasburg is going to sell out Nationals Park every start he makes for the next year. The Nationals can't afford to give up that kid of revenue for any type of talent. They would need trade potential revenue for potential revenue, and I don't believe there is another pitcher in baseball that can match Strazz in that statistic right now. They could get equal value back if they traded for a huge position player, as the everyday revenue might be create a positive VORP for the acquisition. That being said, I don't think Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez or Joe Mauer are available for a price as measley as a minor league pitcher.

I don't personally know what Steven Straburg will become. All that I am saying is neither does anyone else. No 1st overall drafted pitcher has ever one a Cy Young. I know that we scout Strazz as a pitcher that will have that kind of success, but even if we were to know that, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Doc Gooden all fell short of expecations for reasons that had nothing to do with raw talent. I wouldn't trade Strazz if I were the Nationals, but it shouldn't be forgotten that talent-wise he is just another propsect, whose baseball worth still needs to be proven. Economically, however, he is a beast all his own.

-APT

The Ken Griffey Jr Award

It struck me upon announcing the creation of The Isaac Bruce award that I must have been preoccupied upon mentioning Ken Griffey Jr's retirement to have not promised him the same pseudo-honor. Junior, along with perhaps Emmitt Smith, has had the single largest impact on my life as a sportsfan of any athlete. That fact makes hims largely responsible for the life of this blog. Therefore...

Let this post serve as the official announcement of the creation of Lightning in a Bottle's Ken Griffey Junior Award.

This incredibly subjective award will be given to the most popular player in baseball. This is the player whose jersey is seen on children's backs and name is heard on people's tongues in Nashville, Tacoma, Tucson, Levittown, Canton, Quebec, Tokyo and Tallahassee. It goes to the player who transcends team and is simply an ambassador of the sport to all of the fans through his play on the field. It goes to the player whose stance everyone is imitating in their backyard, whose number and position everyone is giving themselves when they create their player in MLB the Show, who is inspiring the baseball dreams that are taking shape during the year in question. Ken Griffey Jr was EVERYONE's favorite player when I was in grade school, because his play was too dynamic not to notice. Recent winners could have included Ichiro, David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, etc; though the award will officially be given out for the first time at the end of the 2010 baseball season.

-APT

Isaac Bruce

The St. Louis Rams and their newly reacquired WR, the legendary Isaac Bruce, will hold a press conference on Wednesday to announce the retirement of Bruce, who holds every major receiving record in Rams franchise history. Bruce played the past two seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, leading them in receiving in 2008-2009, but losing playing time to rookie Michael Crabtree last season. The 49ers showed their respect and consideration for Bruce by trading him back to the Rams yesterday, so that he could retire, appropriately, in St. Louis. Bruce was traded for a conditional draft-pick that will only factor-in if he were to play this season. His retirement Wednesday creates the potential for Bruce to enter the Football Hall of Fame in Canton, alongside quarterback Kurt Warner, if both are fortunate enough to be elected on their first attempt. (We hope it's the case) For more on the situation, see this article on ESPN.com.

Isaac Bruce is one of our favorite receivers here at Lightning in a Bottle and we would like to show our appreciation for his brilliant career. Not only do we wish him the best of of luck in all his future non-football endeavors, but I'd like to take this opportunity to announce that St. Louis Rams #80, Isaac Bruce, will be commemorated here at Lightning in a Bottle with the creation of the Isaac Bruce Award.

The Isaac Bruce Award will be given at the end of every NFL season to the receiver who exhibits recognizable excellence in the dragging of toes along the boundary lines to complete catches. For those that have followed Bruce's illustrious career, it should be well-known that Isaac Bruce was the single best toe/foot dragger that the NFL could boast. His proficiency in this skill has been rivaled in the past by greats like Cris Carter, and is strived for by current receivers, such as Santonio Holmes.

I'd once again like to thank Mr. Bruce for all that he has given us as fans of the sport of football, and hope that perhaps someday, he will come across this award and appreciate the very little we are able to give back to him.

-APT